'World's most accurate economist' predicts if Trump or Harris will win 2024 election and impact on US markets

A man known as the 'world's most accurate economist' is taking his talents to the US election, predicting whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win and how that will affect the markets.

Christophe Barraud of Market Securities has been rated by Bloomberg as the economist who best predicts what will happen to the US economy each year for 11 of the past 12.

Now, he's looking ahead to the 2024 election, focusing on what will happen to markets if Harris or Trump are elected, as polls show Trump leading Harris on the economy.

Barraud is bullish on a growth economy regardless of who wins, as markets are currently reeling from the election as well as weather disasters and labor strikes.

However, Barraud says the most likely outcome for 2024 is a red wave: Donald Trump taking back the White House and Republicans taking back the Senate, with a toss-up for the House of Representatives.

He uses a model that combines economic, financial and satellite data as well as backtests and outside models, Barraud told Business Insider.

There is also reason on what the betting markets have to say about Barraud's selection, valuing those who get the most action. Betting markets were bullish on Trump for most of the year.

What will happen to the economy if Trump wins and Republicans take control of Congress?

Barraud predicts that GDP will grow anywhere from 2.1-2.3% to 2.1-2.3% after the Trump tariff cuts.

But he worries about the growing U.S. deficit and where it will go if Trump cuts taxes.

Other forecasts from economists include a Trump win, but a divided Congress, which would limit the president's powers and force him to focus most of his time on foreign policy.

The tariffs — a huge part of Trump's economic plan — will be enacted sooner than many think, according to Barraud, hurting global growth and potentially damaging the economy in the long run.

His third possible scenario, a Harris victory and a divided Congress, would leave the economy in a status quo, with little expected to change.

Barraud says the most likely outcome for 2024 is a red wave: Donald Trump taking back the White House and Republicans taking back the Senate, with a toss-up for the House of Representatives.

His third possible scenario, a Harris victory and a divided Congress, would leave the economy in a status quo, with little prospect of change.

A series of new polls with just two weeks to go before Election Day show Donald Trump holding an edge on the economy, an issue that has historically driven presidential races.

At a time when voters are still focused on inflation even though it has cooled to 2.4 percent, Americans are concluding that Trump will make them richer and summarizing that they trust him more on the economy.

A new CNBC All-America Economic Survey held Trump by a narrow 48 percent to 46 percent.

But among those who prioritize inflation and the economy, Trump's lead widened from 42 to 24.

Trump has a narrow 48 to 47 lead in the battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election.

Both candidates are criss-crossing the country in those states to get their economic messages out.

Trump held a 35-point lead among those most concerned about the economy, an issue he has consistently emphasized, and a 19-point lead among those most concerned about crime and safety — and he often weaves in immigration, citing horrific killings by immigrants. .

In seven battleground states, Trump leads 48% to 47% within a 4% margin of error for that share of the vote.

With just two weeks to go before Election Day, a series of new polls show Donald Trump holding an edge on the economy, an issue that has historically driven presidential races.

Both candidates are criss-crossing the country in those states to get their economic messages out

The poll also showed Trump has a 35-point advantage among voters most concerned about immigration and a 19-point advantage on crime and safety issues.

Another Financial Times poll conducted by the University of Michigan Ross School of Business found Trump holding a narrow edge on the economy.

He led Harris 44 percent to 43 percent, essentially a tie. When asked who would do them better financially, respondents picked Trump 45 percent to 37 percent.