Trump media stocks surged after sudden reversal in electoral odds
Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, jumped last week as betting markets began to lean toward former President Donald Trump.
On Friday, the stock closed up 4.8% at $25.28, up 53% from last Friday's closing price.
This coincided with a massive improvement in Trump's victory odds on the top betting sites. For example, Vice President Kamala Harris led on PredictIt last weekend, then tied by Wednesday, and was overtaken by Trump the next day.
Similarly, Harris had a slight advance in the Polymarket on Oct. 4, but lost it over the weekend, with Trump extending his lead throughout the following week. So far, it shows 55% for Trump and 44.7% for Harris.
And in Kalshi, Harris and Trump were basically neck and neck, but Trump started to pull ahead midweek and now leads 47% vs. 53%.
Meanwhile, renowned data scientist Thomas Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, also said of fate Sean Tully on Thursday gave Trump a two-vote Electoral College lead in favor of Trump, who has grown over the past week.
He maintains that his model, which is driven by political betting data, is a much better predictor than following individual polls.
While nationwide opinion polls have not shown dramatic changes, Harris is clinging to a narrow lead, with polls in the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania showing his advantage narrowing while Trump is ahead in other battleground states such as Georgia and North Carolina.
Trump media shares have already been on a wild ride this year, acting like a barometer of Trump's election chances. Stocks skyrocketed after Trump's first debate with President Joe Biden in June and after Trump survived an assassination attempt in July.
But after Biden stepped down and Harris took his place in the presidency, Trump media stocks collapsed. Shares sold off further last month as the end of the lockup period approached, allowing company insiders to sell their shares.
Then last month, Trump said he would not sell his stocks, easing speculation that he would cash them out to cover legal or campaign expenses. Since the Sept. 23 low, Trump Media stocks have jumped 115%.
Trump owns about 59% of the outstanding shares, meaning his stake is now worth about $3 billion.
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