Tropical Storm Milton tracker: Map and projected storm path

Tropical Storm Milton tracker: Map and projected storm path


Tropical Storm Milton has formed on a path across the Gulf of Mexico and is likely to bring hurricane-strength wind and rain to Florida by Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center reported Saturday.

Forecast models suggest the storm will strike the western part of the Florida peninsula with flooding rain, a dangerous ocean surge and damaging winds.

As with most hurricanes and tropical storms, serious impacts could extend well to the north and south of where the center comes ashore.

If Milton continues on its trajectory and strengthens to a hurricane, it will be the second to make landfall in Florida, less than two weeks after Helene came ashore as a Category 4 storm and brought record-high storm surges. The storm has been blamed for more than 220 deaths along its entire path from Florida into Virginia.

How a hurricane forms and strengthens

Only when tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean encounter the right ingredients for long enough do they strengthen to the point of designation.

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center pay close attention to a cyclone’s wind speed, which determines its class. Once it reaches 39 mph for at least one minute, it’s classified as a tropical storm and given a name; at 74 mph, the storm becomes a Category 1 hurricane, and continues through Category 5.

These classifications help officials predict the possible risks and damage and send warnings of what to expect from the strong winds, waves, rains and floods when they hit land.

It’s dangerous to be caught in tropical storm-force winds. Stronger hurricane-force winds can destroy homes and buildings and send debris flying.

The winds can also push seawater inland for miles, causing an abnormal rise in seawater levels, known as storm surge — the leading cause of death during a hurricane in the United States, according to the National Weather Service. Large waves are also a risk to people and property.

As a storm moves further inland, flooding becomes a major risk. Cyclones often produce more than six inches of heavy rain, which can overwhelm drainage systems and the ability of the ground to absorb the water, causing flash floods. Flooding may persist for days after a storm.

Hurricane season historically peaks around mid-September, and this season could be the worst in decades, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says. Government meteorologists predict 17 to 25 tropical storms this year, including four to seven that could become major hurricanes.



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