Tracking new area of potential tropical development in Gulf of Mexico

As we progress into the heat of our 2024 tropical season, the WEAR First Warning Weather Team is tracking yet another area of interest in the Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center has given this area of unsettled weather a 0% chance for development over the next 2 days, and a 50% chance over the next 7 days.

This particular graphic represents where a cluster of showers and thunderstorms could develop into a tropical system. This is not a forecast track. Cone forecasts are not available until a system is named.

This system is expected to gradually move into the Gulf, where environmental conditions will likely support further development. A tropical depression could form by the middle of next week. It would not reach the Gulf until the end of the week.

This is not a threat to us at this time, but we will be closely monitoring the progress of this potential weather maker, as models are already picking up the chance for some tropical moisture to move into the area next weekend.

Taking a broader view of things, we currently have two active storms in the Atlantic Basin. Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce. Both of these storms pose no threat to land, and will say well out to sea.

In addition, we also have a highlighted area in the Eastern/Central Atlantic that has a high chance for tropical development over the next 7 days. This will likely become a tropical depression during the early part or middle of next week. This is no threat to us at this time, as a northwest track is expected.

Helene is now a post-tropical cyclone with max sustained winds of 15 mph, as it slowly winds down across the Tennessee Valley. The NHC issued its last advisory on the storm this morning.

So far in our 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, we’ve had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. We could certainly be adding to this list in the coming days.

It is far too early to know what we may be dealing with next week in the tropics, but be sure to stay locked into all of WEAR’s tropical updates, especially next week!