Tesla Robotaxi Revealed: What to Expect | TechCrunch

Tesla is gearing up to unveil its Robotaxi this Thursday, and everyone wants to know what it will look like, whether Tesla will unveil a commercialization strategy, and what outrageous deadline Elon Musk might announce to bump up Tesla's stock.

The “We, Robot” event will take place at 7 pm PT at Warner Bros. Discovery's movie studios in Burbank, California, and we've got the details on how to watch it right here.

Musk had originally planned to unveil the robotaxi — which he also referred to as the CyberCab — on August 8. It was a deadline for Musk himself and Tesla, hours after a Reuters report showed the automaker had scrapped plans to build substandard vehicles. -Cost EVs and will instead focus its resources on a robotaxi.

Although Musk initially accused Reuters of lying, over the next few weeks, Tesla actually laid off 10% of its workforce to begin the “next phase of growth,” and Musk said Tesla would be “balls to the wall for autonomy.”

Tesla has rarely stuck to Musk's timeline, and as expected, the Robotaxi event was pushed back to October after Musk requested “an important design change up front.”

Investors who support Tesla's vision for autonomy are waiting for Tesla to finally release a robotaxi. But the timing may not be great. Tesla's margins have taken a hit over the past year or so due to ramping up production of the Cybertruck, among other factors. Its third-quarter deliveries were somewhat disappointing, and Tesla issued its fifth Cybertruck recall within a year of the vehicle's launch.

A new car means more investment in production lines, factory downtime, and other potentially costly problems—things investors don't like to hear.

Whether it's all hype or at least some substance, we'll find out soon. But here's what we expect to see.

A CyberCab prototype

The main thing we'd like to see is a prototype for a new car concept, which would be Tesla's first since announcing the Cybertruck in November 2019.

Musk referred to the Robotaxi as a Cybercab, which seems to confirm the design concept revealed in Walter Isaacson's biography of the executive last year – a two-door, two-seat, compact vehicle like a Cybertruck, with angular ends and a stainless finish. Steel finish

The car will likely be built without a steering wheel or pedals. While Tesla engineers advocated against it at launch, according to Isaacson's book, Musk remained steadfast in his desire to bring a purpose-built car to market.

Tesla could fight regulatory issues for that design choice, which doesn't align with federal motor safety standards, and we partially expect Musk to use that as a reason why the CyberCab will be hard to get on the market.

Tesla's chief designer, Franz von Holzhausen, told TechCrunch's Kirsten Korosek that the company's existing vehicle portfolio laid the foundation for what would come with the robotaxi.

“In a weird sort of way, we're working our way through — in a very public way — what an autonomous future will look like,” von Holzhausen said. “So you see the big interface that we have, the way it's configurable and upgradeable, and we've brought a lot of different entertainment pieces to it and also some humor. And I think it will continue to evolve.”

Smoke and mirrors

Tesla usually holds its big reveal events at one of its facilities, so the Hollywood studio choice is a step-change that suggests Musk's showmanship will be on display.

The studio in question is open to the public for tours, so visitors (who are mainly Tesla shareholders and superfans) will have the chance to be mesmerized by sets from Batman, Friends, Gilmore Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Harry Potter and more. title

This allows Tesla to take advantage of large sound stages and sets, some of which are like a slice of suburbia and even a small suburban area. This could be the perfect place for Tesla to demo the CyberCab in autonomous action — a controlled, closed environment with no other traffic where the car will be able to drive itself at low speeds.

We think the demo may feature the ride-hailing app that Tesla teased during its first-quarter earnings call in April.

Other vehicle and product announcements

The title of the event, “We, Robot”, is a nod to Isaac Asimov's “I, Robot” science fiction series that explores the relationship between robots and humans. As such, many believe the event will feature updates to Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot. That said, Asimov's stories revolve around three laws of robotics that prioritize human safety – 1) a robot cannot injure a human or allow a human to be injured through inaction; 2) A robot must obey commands given by a human unless it conflicts with the First Law; 3) A robot must preserve its own existence unless it contradicts the first and second laws. Those fit nicely into autonomous driving.

Deepwater Asset Management predicts that in addition to the CyberCab prototype, Tesla will provide a preview (but crucially not a prototype) for the $25,000 EV, which fans are calling the Model 2. Analysts Gene Munster and Brian Baker said they expect the Model 2 to remain. A similar look and feel to the CyberCab, perhaps based on Tesla's past comments that the two will share a vehicle platform.

The firm also expects Tesla to provide more details about a Cybervan, a fully autonomous passenger van that could augment public transportation in the future. This prediction is based on Tesla's March 2023 investor presentation that featured a lineup of Tesla's current and future vehicles, including a teaser of a van-sized vehicle.

Some possible wildcards

Building a robotaxis is one thing. It is another to commercialize. Tesla may be able to rely on the uniqueness of its vehicles and the strength of the company's general fan base to attract customers to its ride-hailing service, but many won't want to switch to a service that will likely be less reliable at launch.

A wildcard prediction we have is that Tesla could announce a partnership with Uber, which has proven its existing global ride-hailing platform is attractive to autonomous vehicle companies. Over the past few weeks, Uber has been signing AV companies at a rapid clip, including Waymo, Cruise, Wave and others. While Musk seems to want to go it alone, partnerships may be the best way to actually commercialize these vehicles.

Another possible wildcard is that McDonald's is somehow involved, based on an X post from the fast food chain last week that said, “Chat is going to pop off around 10.10.” Kasturi replied with a smiley-cry emoji, so we can expect to see some autonomous food delivery demos or announcements with McDonald's on Thursday.

Which we don't expect to see

While there will be plenty of hype and chatter about Musk's vision of an autonomous future, executives will likely make the same argument Uber did a decade ago about the potential of shared rides – it would be so easy and cheap to appreciate an AV. , so that people don't have to own their own vehicles.

A rosy picture, but one that we don't expect to back up with a clear path to commercialization on Thursday.

In the past, Musk has said Tesla vehicles on the road today will be able to move toward autonomy with just a software update, allowing owners to add their cars to Tesla's ride-sharing app and rent them out to earn extra cash. Tesla says these rides will take something like 25% to 30% of revenue, and in places where there aren't enough people to share cars, the automaker will provide a dedicated fleet of robotaxis.

Musk has been promising a fully autonomous Tesla for years now, but has yet to launch one. Despite advances in Tesla's advanced driver assistance system called Full Self-Driving (FSD), the technology is still not fully self-driving. It requires a human driver to be focused behind the wheel and take over when necessary.

That may be why Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, an undisputed Tesla bull, expects Tesla to offer a “'dual' approach” to autonomous ride-sharing. There will be a 'supervised' autonomous/FSD rideshare service and a fully autonomous app-based CyberCab, he said, with an expected initial commercial launch in late 2025 or 2026.

When it comes to production of the CyberCabs themselves, Deepwater analysts point to a lag between Tesla's product unveiling and production ramping up. The Model Y had a minimum lag of 10 months, while the Cybertruck took 48 months and the Semi 79 months and counting. Tesla delivered a handful of Semis in December 2022, but has yet to ramp up volume production.

“This suggests that any vehicle announced in August will begin production in June 2025,” Deepwater wrote.

And since the Robotaxi event has been pushed back so Tesla can make “some important changes,” the product is still a long way from being ready to go into production.

This article has been updated to include comments from Tesla's chief designer. It was originally published on October 8 at 12:22 PT.