Shares of Trump Media soared, adding $2 billion to Trump's holdings

In the past few weeks, former President Donald J. Trump has become much richer, and so have shareholders in the social media company that bears his name

Shares in Trump Media & Technology had nearly tripled in late September, a week after the expiration of a rule that prevented some early investors, including Mr. Trump, from selling tens of millions of shares.

Shares of Truth Social's parent company jumped nearly 10 percent Tuesday, on top of Monday's 18 percent gain.

In the past few weeks, the surge has added about $2 billion to the value of Mr. Trump's roughly 60 percent stake in the company. The former president's 115-million-share stake is now worth about $3.8 billion.

Since Trump Media became a public company in March, its stock has been on a roller-coaster ride, rising and falling often with the perceived odds of Mr Trump winning the presidential election.

Most opinion polls show a neck-and-neck race between Mr. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. But the betting and prediction markets – dominated by traders and crypto speculators – have recently seen Mr Trump take a decisive lead.

One of the most popular prediction sites, Polymarket, has Mr. Trump ahead of Ms. Harris 57 percent to 43 percent. Polymarket is a favorite platform for crypto traders, and has raised millions of dollars from Peter Thiel's founding fund. Mr. Thiel, a Silicon Valley tycoon, has endorsed many conservative candidates in recent years, including Senator J.D. Vance, Mr. Trump's running mate.

“This stock has never traded on fundamentals, but it's a barometer for both Trump and Trump followers,” said Christy Marvin, a former investment banker and founder of SpaceSider, which collects data on special purpose acquisition firms (a type of shell company, such as the one that March month to merge with Trump Media to give it a public listing). “And in the same way that people can now bet on Trump and the election on sites like Polymarket, people can also bet on Trump through the stock market.”

Mr. Trump is not an officer or director of Trump Media, but he is a poster child for Truth Social and the platform's main draw.

Given the volatility of Trump Media shares, it's hard to know exactly what's driving its price from day to day.

On Tuesday, a crypto company to which Mr. Trump has given his backing — World Liberty Financial — was scheduled to begin selling a token to investors. Although Mr. Trump does not have a direct ownership stake in the venture as he does with Trump Media, he has been promoting global freedom since August.

Some investors may have viewed Mr. Trump's decision not to sell any shares in Trump Media after a six-month lockup period as bullish. The lockup provisions expired on September 19

The fact that the company was losing millions of dollars per quarter and taking in little ad revenue didn't faze investors. The company has a market value of more than $6 billion, putting it on par with companies such as toy maker Mattel and department store chain Dillard's.

Trading in the Trump media has been frenzied of late, with millions of shares changing hands every day. The company's more than 600,000 shareholders are believed to be mostly private investors, many of them fans of the former president and Truth Social posters.

Even after the recent surge in Trump Media shares, the company's value is about half of its record high. The stock hit record highs after the company merged with Cash, a deal that brought Trump Media more than $300 million in cash.

It's not yet clear how Trump Media will use that cash beyond rolling out a video streaming service to complement the Truth social platform. The company still holds an investor or analyst call.