Predicting the WNBA Finals: How the Liberty, Lynx match up — and why our experts are divided

And then there were two.

The No. 1 seed New York Liberty and the No. 2 seed Minnesota Lynx will battle for the 2024 championship in a best-of-five WNBA Finals starting Thursday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) with Game 1 in Brooklyn.

Both teams enter the final with contrasting histories. The Liberty, one of the league's core franchises, are still looking for their first title, with last year's final defeat still fresh in their minds.

The Lynx were one of the sport's most storied dynasties after winning four championships between 2011 and 2017 — the latter also marking their last Finals series appearance until this season.

Led by Brenna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, New York's superteam was expected to return in its second year of formation. Minnesota? not right The Lynx were 19-21 in 2023 and had not been ranked as a contender prior to this season. But coming off a career year from MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier, Minnesota has proven it belongs on the WNBA's biggest stage.

Minnesota needed a Game 5 to put away the Connecticut Sun in the semifinals, but the Lynx and Liberty would meet in the finals. They were the top two teams in the standings and met in the 2024 Commissioner's Cup championship game in late June.

ESPN breaks down what to know about each team and what to expect from the Championship Series.

(1) New York Liberty vs. (2) Minnesota Lynx

Regular Season Series: Minnesota won 3-1 including the Commissioner's Cup championship game

New York in the playoffs: Beat Atlanta Dream 2-0 in first round; The two-time defending champions beat the Las Vegas Aces 3-1 in the semifinals

Minnesota in the playoffs: Phoenix beat Mercury 2-0 in first round; In the semifinals, Connecticut beat the Suns 3-2

How New York Got Here: After a standout 2023, the team's first season after acquiring Stewart, Jonkel Jones and Courtney Vandersloot in free agency, New York retooled its bench to bring more defense and length, most notably 24-year-old rookie Leony Fibich from Germany (who now starts in place of Vandersloot is). With increased chemistry between their returners, the Liberty finished with a league best 32-8 record, never losing a game this year. — Philip

How Minnesota Got Here: The Lynx made significant changes in the offseason, bringing in Courtney Williams and Alana Smith in free agency and trading for Natisha Heideman. Kayla McBride and Bridget Carlton also had strong seasons. Collier was Defensive Player of the Year with a second-place MVP finish. Minnesota's only rough stretch was before the Olympic break, when Collier was dealing with plantar fasciitis. — Bhopal

How they match: There's a reason these teams occupy the top two spots in the standings: They were the only teams to finish in the top-four in both offensive and defensive rating this season, with the Lynx slightly edging out the Liberty defensively but New York having better marks offensively. Both squads lean toward ball sharing and 3-point shooting, but Liberty has the tandem of the 6-foot-4 Stewart and 6-6 Jones to get it done inside.

There's plenty of star power: Stewart and Jones are former MVPs, Collier is the 2024 runner-up. Ionescu, McBride and Williams are playing like the best three guards in the league. The rotation continues to be short in the postseason, but Liberty coach Sandy Brondello and Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve have depth at their disposal, with nine players on each team averaging at least 12 minutes per season. — Philip

What will impact the series the most: How much the Liberty are able to win the paint with Stewart and Jones could be the key to the series. It won't be easy; On August 20, Minnesota got even stronger with the addition of forward Mysha Hines-Allen. Stewart is coming off perhaps his best game of the playoffs, with 19 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 blocks as New York beats Las Vegas. sunday But his fellow UConn grad Collier — they played together for the Huskies during the 2015-16 championship season — has been the most impressive player in the playoffs. Tuesday was Collier's 16th career WNBA postseason game, and her third with at least 25 points and 10 rebounds. — Bhopal

New York wins it all if… Ionescu continues to play like the best guard in the league. The former Oregon Ducks star is hungry to win his first championship after missing the opportunity to compete for an NCAA title his senior year of college due to the Covid-19 pandemic. When play resumed after the Olympics, he became the Liberty's leading scorer in the postseason, averaging 20.7 ppg on 48.9% shooting (46.5% on 3-pointers) plus 5.2 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game. — Philip

Minnesota wins it all if… Collier has been as much as he's asserted himself so far in the postseason, and if Minnesota's 3-point shooting is on point. The Lynx led the WNBA in assists during the regular season; They move the ball incredibly and spread even the best defenses. They shot a league-best 38% from behind the arc during the regular season and have no shortage of confidence facing the Liberty. Their success against New York this season should not be taken for granted. — Bhopal

Which team will win the title and why:

Filippo: Liberty in 5. New York will win because it has the hunger, focus and experience from last year's Finals loss — plus home court advantage — to finally get the job done.

Voepel: Lynx in 5. Minnesota is the No. 2 seed, but had the better team in their previous matchup with New York. The Lynx have played very consistently and cohesively throughout the season and they can add the league title to their Commissioner's Cup championship from June.