Nebraska football vs. Illinois: An inflection point for the season

With Illinois heading into a top-25 matchup with the Fighting Illini on Friday night, the nation's eyes will once again be on them, with the game, like the prime-time matchup with Colorado, one of the most-watched of the weekend. During the Bo Pelini, Mike Riley, and Scott Frost eras, Nebraska dried up during isolated games that had little competition for spectators with other games.

Despite Matt Rhule's Friday night win against Illinois in 2023, the season was bookended with a 13-10 weekday loss. This Friday night, Nebraska faces a daunting list of curses: a 2-4 all-time record against Brett Bielema, no wins against a ranked opponent since 2016 and the prospect of another lackluster performance in the national spotlight.

Rule has built a strong culture in the locker room. On Friday, that culture could spill over into the stands and give fans reason to hope again.

Illini quarterback Luke Altmaier has been a standout, ranking 23rd in the nation for EPA per dropback. That's despite Illinois ranking 10th in the Big Ten in passing yards. His performance against Kansas, Illinois' strongest opponent in 2024, was a rollercoaster. Altmyer felt a dip in EPA before the Illinois offense got going, scoring 10 fourth-quarter points to secure a close win. Although Illinois ranks 22nd in the EPA in pass plays per game, their success has largely come against weaker opponents in Eastern Illinois and Central Michigan, making their prospect against Nebraska an intriguing prospect.

Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola is a reliable force, does what he's asked and looks exceptional at times. He has the fourth-highest completion percentage in the Big Ten Conference, a testament to his skill and team strategy. The Huskers are one of the best teams in the country at spreading the ball around to different players, with six players already amassing 5+ catches. Raiola's ability to stretch plays and wait for a receiver to get open is a key strength.

This week, I expect a number of Huskers to make significant contributions, resulting in a strong offensive performance.

Illinois rushers have shown the ability to break big runs this season, a potential game-changer. Their top four rushers each had multiple carries of at least 10 yards, showing their explosive ability. However, they only managed four rushing touchdowns all season and their rushing EPA ranked 68th on the season. On the other hand, Nebraska's Dante Dowdell has been a punishing rusher averaging nearly 6 YPC. His 7.27 EPA ranks 62nd in the nation against the run in 2024 and is already higher than any Husker running back in 2023, setting the stage for an exciting game.

After the last decade of Nebraska football, this game seems like one the Huskers should not only lose but embarrass themselves. Raiola and Rule are driving Nebraska through a culture change. First-down penalties no longer guarantee a punt three plays later. Both the offense and defense contributed in a way that hasn't been seen in Lincoln since the last time a Raiola suited up for the Huskers.

I think the Huskers will win on Friday and begin to change the perception of Nebraska football built in the Big Ten era, showing that it finally belongs with the league's top teams.

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