National Hurricane Center Watching Southwest Caribbean | Weather.com
- A broad area of low pressure is likely to form this week in the southwest Caribbean.
- This low could gradually try to spin up a tropical depression or storm as it moves little.
- The western Caribbean is an area that has historically seen tropical development in November.
Hurricane season’s final month is drawing closer, but it might not go completely quiet as the southwest Caribbean is being monitored for possible late-season tropical development.
Here’s the latest status on the Caribbean area to watch: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a few days in the area highlighted below that’s located east of Central America and south of Jamaica.
Thereafter, this area of low pressure will be watched closely to see if it becomes better defined with concentrated thunderstorm activity. If that happens, then a tropical depression or storm could develop.
Any possible tropical development would not occur until late this week or next weekend at the earliest. The next Atlantic storm name is Patty.
National Hurricane Center Possible Development Area
Here’s where this possible system might track: For now, the NHC says this eventual broad area of low pressure will only drift north or northeast over the next 5 to 7 days. If a named storm eventually develops, it’s too early to know what, if any, land areas it might impact in the Caribbean’s Greater Antilles.
The broad area of low pressure in combination with a stalling front could at least produce locally heavy rain in Central America and other parts of the Caribbean, regardless of tropical development.
The southwest Caribbean is a typical late-season storm formation location. Tropical storm formation chances usually continue to dwindle as we enter the final month of hurricane season.
Historically, the area in yellow below stretching from the western Caribbean to the Bahamas as well as a separate area in the central Atlantic have had the most instances of named storm formations in November.
The last month of hurricane season generates one storm every 1 to 2 years, on average. In the past 10 years, the season’s last storm fizzled as soon as Oct. 28 and as late as Dec. 7.
Last year, no storms formed in the month of November.
But 2022 was quite the opposite, with Martin and Nicole developing into November hurricanes. Lisa also intensified into a hurricane during the month after forming as a tropical storm on Oct. 31.
Nicole eventually went on to strike the Atlantic coast of Florida as a Category 1, becoming just the fourth November hurricane to landfall in the mainland U.S. in records dating to the mid-19th century.
Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.
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