Futures fall due to underlying data; Nvidia CEO sees 'insane' demand

Dow Jones futures fell slightly early Thursday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Initial jobless claims and service-sector data tap into the September jobs report early Friday.

The stock market rally erased a modest loss to close higher, albeit slightly amid continued tensions in the Middle East. The Nasdaq found support at its 21-day moving average for a second straight session.

↑
X

Now playing
Stocks held firm despite Middle East warnings; Vertex, BRO, SCCO in focus

Tesla ( TSLA ) fell on Wednesday after deliveries failed to meet Whisper numbers, but TSLA stock held off key support.

Nvidia ( NVDA ) rose after support from tests with fellow AI chip giants Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Broadcom (AVGO). Nvidia stock rose slightly overnight as CEO Jensen Huang cited “insane” demand for next-generation Blackwell AI chips.

Nvidia stock is on the IBD Leaderboard and the IBD 50. Broadcom stock is in the IBD Big Cap 20.

Dow Jones futures today

Dow Jones futures were 0.2% below fair value. S&P 500 futures were down 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.2%.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.8%. Crude oil prices rose more than 2%.

At 8:30 AM ET, the Labor Department will release jobless claims for the week ended October 3, with filings up 7,000 to 225,000. At 10 am, investors got the September ISM Services Index, which was set to hold a slightly positive 51.5. The September jobs report is due Friday.

Note that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Join IBD experts as they analyze leading stocks and markets on IBD Live

Stock market rally

The stock market rally was a fairly quiet session and ended little changed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% in stock market trading on Wednesday. The S&P 500 index was up less than a point. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.1%.

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 are still just below last week's all-time highs, just above the 21-day line, and the former has found support at the top of a consolidation. The Nasdaq held a 21-day line, although it is below the 18,000 level. The small-cap Russell 2000 finished just above its 21-day line, not far from its 50-day line.

It's no coincidence that Nvidia, Tesla and many other stocks are finding support near their 21-day lines, as is the Nasdaq.

U.S. crude oil prices rose 0.4% to $70.10 a barrel, well off an intraday high.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose four basis points to 3.78%.

Time the market with IBD's ETF Market Strategy

ETF

Among growth ETFs, Innovator IBD 50 ETF ( FFTY ) advanced 0.15%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF ( IGV ) rose 0.9%. The VanEck Vector Semiconductor ETF ( SMH ) rebounded 1.4%. Nvidia is the number one holding in SMH, with Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor stocks also key members.

Reflecting a more speculative stock story, the ARK Innovation ETF ( ARKK ) sank 0.7% while the ARK Genomics ETF ( ARKG ) rose a fraction. Tesla stock is still a large holding across Arc Invest's ETFs Cathy Wood also built a large Nvidia stock stake.

Tesla Delivery

Tesla's deliveries rose 6% from a year ago to 462,890 in the third quarter, roughly in line with various estimates. But this was well below the “whispered” number of 465,000-470,000 or so.

Also, Tesla said it saved 6.9 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy in the third quarter, down sharply from Q2's record 9.4 GWh. This was up from 70% a year ago.

Tesla falls on deliveries while BYD rises on rising sales

Tesla stock

Tesla stock sank 3.5% to 249.02. Shares fell as low as 241.50 after the open, but found support just above the 21-day line. TSLA stock has a 271 cup-basis buy point But it can work on a handle that will minimize entry and allow moving averages to catch up.

Ideally, Tesla stock will set up a handle heading into the Oct. 10 Robotaxi event, which could have a big impact on the share price.

TSLA fell slightly early Thursday.

Nvidia Demand 'Insane'

Nvidia stock rose 1.6% to 118.85, rebounding from its 50-day moving average and retrieving the 21-day line. Investors can use the September 26 high of 127.67 as a trendline entry or a handle buy point. The August 26 high of 131.26 could also act as a buy point.

NVDA stock rose slightly overnight after CEO Huang told CNBC late Wednesday that “Blackwell is in full production and demand for Blackwell is insane and on schedule. Everyone wants to be the first to get their hands on it.”

Huang has been upbeat about Blackwell production and demand over the past few weeks.

Taiwan Semiconductor stocks rose 2.2% to 175.80. According to MarketSurge analysis, TSM stock has recovered the 21-day line and a 175.45 cup-with-handle buy point. The Nvidia chipmaker fell sharply last week, but then bounced back over the previous three sessions. Taiwan Semi will report Q3 sales next week and Q3 earnings next week.

Broadcom stock rose 1.9% to 170.66, rebounding from a 21-day line. AVGO stock has a 185.16 consolidation buy point, but is on track for a handle after Thursday's trading. This will reduce the buy point to 180.25.

When to Buy and Sell Stocks in Bull and Bear Markets

what to do now

Unless you're an extremely astute trader, there's not much reason to buy stocks this week. Investors may cut exposure, especially if recent buys trigger selling rules, but it's largely been a wait-and-see period.

A good day or two and key indices and leading stocks will look bullish. Many possible handles and pullbacks are constructed. But a bad day can cause real losses for the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, as well as stocks like Nvidia.

With this in mind, make sure you watch those emerging setups, as well as have your exit strategies in place

Read The Big Picture daily to stay in tune with market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson at @edcarson1971 and on X/Twitter @IBD_ECarson For stock market updates and more.

You may also like:

Why this IBD tool makes searching for top stocks easy

Best growth stocks to buy and watch

IBD Digital: Unlock IBD's premium stock lists, tools and analysis today