Final WTC scenario – India need four wins from the remaining six Tests to clinch a spot

With just 20 Tests remaining in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, five teams have a shot at making the final. Here's a look at each team's chances of qualification.

India
Percentage: 62.82, Matches left: New Zealand (one home) and Australia (five away)

Two shock defeats against New Zealand mean India have left themselves with a lot to do for a third successive WTC final, although they still hang on at the top with a slim lead over Australia. To secure a place in the top two this cycle, India need to win the final Test of the ongoing series against New Zealand – in Mumbai – and then beat Australia 3-2. This would take them to 64.04% points (they won't lose any points due to the slow over rate).

Even if Australia won 2-0 in Sri Lanka, with two wins against India they could still get 60.53%, while a loss in Mumbai would see New Zealand finish at 57.14% and then they beat England 3-0 at home. In that case, South Africa is the only team that can topple India. A 2-2 series result in Australia would leave India at 60.53% compared to Australia's 62.28% (India won in Mumbai, and Australia beat Sri Lanka 2-0).

If India lose in Mumbai, New Zealand can finish at 64.29%, but only with a 3-0 result against England. India will then need four wins and a draw in Australia to secure a place in the finals, regardless of other results.

However, India could still finish in the top two with less wins if the other teams in the competition do not maximize their points. For example, if New Zealand lose in Mumbai and beat England 2-0, they will get only 52.38%; If South Africa lose one of their remaining five Tests, they will finish 61.11%; And if Australia beat India 3-2 but draw 1-1 in Sri Lanka, they will finish with 60.53%.

New Zealand
Percentage: 50.00, Matches Remaining: India (one away) and England (three home)

At the start of the series in India, it seemed highly unlikely that New Zealand would still be in contention for a place in the final. But their stunning win after two of the three Tests gave them room to dream. If they win each of their remaining four Tests, they will finish at 64.29%. It won't guarantee eligibility, but it will certainly put them in the mix. However, if they lose one of those Tests, their percentage will drop to 57.14%.

South Africa
Percentage: 47.62, remaining matches: Bangladesh (one away), Sri Lanka (two home) and Pakistan (two home)

If South Africa win each of their remaining five Tests, they will finish with 69.44%, which would certainly be enough to qualify, as only one outside of India or Australia can surpass this figure. Four wins and a draw would leave South Africa with 63.89%, while five wins and a loss would drop the percentage marginally to 61.11%, which could still give them a chance if other results go their way. They have a favorable schedule with home Tests against Sri Lanka and Pakistan followed by the second Test of the ongoing series against Bangladesh.

Australia
Percentage: 62.50, Matches left: India (five home) and Sri Lanka (two away)

India's loss to New Zealand boosted Australia's chances of reaching the final. A 3-2 series win against India and a 1-0 win in Sri Lanka would take them to 62.28%, keeping them ahead of India. New Zealand can still surpass it, but only if they win every one of their remaining matches. If New Zealand fall behind, South Africa are the only team who can overtake Australia. Australia need five wins from their remaining seven matches to secure qualification, regardless of other results.

Sri Lanka
Percentage: 55.56, Matches left: SA (two away) and Australia (two home)

With a full 24 points from their last two Tests, Sri Lanka have made a strong push towards a top-two finish in this WTC cycle. Their remaining four Tests are against two opponents who are also contenders for the final. If they win each of those matches and take home a further 48 points, they will finish at 69.23% and ensure themselves in the final regardless of other results. If they lose one and win three, they will end up with 61.54%, which is their chance of qualifying depending on other results.

England
Percentage: 40.79, matches left: New Zealand (three away)

Two losses to Pakistan mean England can finish with a maximum 48.86% despite beating New Zealand 3-0 in their penultimate series of the current cycle. That will not be enough to make it to the finals.

Pakistan
Percentage: 33.33, Matches left: South Africa (two away) and West Indies (two home)

Pakistan's home form has shown some revival, but it has been too late to make a difference this cycle. Even if they win each of their last four Tests, they can only finish 52.38% with no chance of reaching the final.

Bangladesh
Percentage: 30.56, Matches left: South Africa (one home) and West Indies (two away)

Three defeats in their last three Tests against India and South Africa have hurt Bangladesh badly – at one stage they had 45.83% of points, they are now down to 30.56%. Even if they win each of their remaining three Tests, they will improve to just 47.92%, which will not be enough to finish in the top two.

West Indies
Percentage: 18.52, Series Remaining: Bangladesh (two home) and Pakistan (two away)

West Indies have already played four series and have scored only 20 points out of a possible 108 Even if they win their last four Tests, they can only finish at 43.59% and therefore fall out of the running for a place in the WTC finals. .