Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump appears to be getting a big boost from the world's richest man in the crucial final days of the 2024 campaign. Tesla ( TSLA ) CEO Elon Musk is on track to pour more than $100 million into Trump's campaign effort, and he's even running a ground operation in Pennsylvania to woo late-breaking swing voters to Trump.
It may backfire. Yahoo Finance surveyed more than 4,000 of our regular users and found that Musk's involvement with the Trump campaign may have had the opposite effect.
We asked respondents whether Musk's new alliance with Trump would make them more or less likely to vote for the former president. Among all respondents, 25% said it would make them more likely to vote for Trump, while 28% said it would make them less likely. That's a net loss of 3 percentage points for Trump. 46 percent said it would not affect their vote choice in any way.
Among people who said they remained undecided, 21% said Musk's involvement would make them more likely to vote for Trump, while 28% said less. That's a 7-point deficit that could make the difference among voters in a race so tight analysts consider it a coin toss.
This is not a random survey, and the Yahoo Finance audience tends to be wealthier, more educated and older than the electorate as a whole. But our survey is a large and tailored focus group of investors — including some Tesla shareholders — who follow Mercury Mask more closely than others and are likely familiar with his pathbreaking role at Tesla and other companies, including SpaceX and social media app X. Also known as Twitter.
Other studies find similar results. The Democratic polling group Blueprint recently asked men ages 18 to 29 what they thought about a variety of issues. When asked about Elon Musk's endorsement of Trump, 24% said it would make them more likely to vote for Trump, and 28% said less. Independents, who overlap with swing voters, were slightly more negative about Musk, with 18% saying his support for Trump made them more likely to vote for the Republican nominee and 27% saying less.
It's not that people. Like our Yahoo Finance readers, Musk doesn't like it. In our survey, 45% said he is good for society, while only 23% said he is bad for society. But 28% agree that Musk is a visionary entrepreneur who has become very rich and powerful.
Kasturi helps run at least six companies, and has been an outspoken critic of government overreach, “censorship” of offensive online speech, and social-inclusion policies he derides as “awakening.” On X, Musk often reposts conspiracy theories. He became phone friends with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Conservative commentator William Kristol of Bulwark called Musk an “oligarch” who is trying to gain control of the Republican Party and, if Trump wins, the entire US government.
Musk's MAGA activism has made him a divisive figure. As a champion of electric vehicles, Musk was a hero to many liberal climate warriors who saw EVs as an important tool to reduce carbon emissions and fight climate change. Many of the automaker's primary sales were in the Democratic stronghold of California Musk said he voted for Democrats in the last two presidential elections, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.
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Biden sidelined Musk early in his presidency, flatly refusing to invite Musk to an event hyping EVs, where General Motors ( GM ), Ford ( F ), and Jeep parent Stellartis ( STLA ) led the parade. Tesla is way ahead of traditional automakers in EVs. But unlike the Detroit Three, Tesla is non-unionized, which is why pro-union Biden froze Tesla. Kasturi began publicly berating Biden at some point in 2022, calling him a “damp puppet in human form.” Musk is now seeking revenge for Biden's snub.
Americans increasingly see Musk as a political figure. In a September NBC News poll, Musk's overall approval rating was 34%. But among Democrats, only 6% had a positive view of the mask. Among Republicans, 62% had a positive view. Independents were more negative than the entire sample, giving Musk a 31% approval rating.
According to a Yahoo Finance survey, Tesla shareholders still seem to be fans of Musk. Perhaps it's no surprise that Tesla's stock has risen more than 800% over the past five years, making boatloads of cash for many shareholders. In our survey, 557 respondents said they were Tesla shareholders. Of those, 54% said musk is a benefit to society, 9 points higher than the overall sample. Just 13% said he was harmful to society, 10 points lower than the broader group.
interests? Elon Musk and Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump at the Butler Farm Show on Oct. 5 in Butler, Pa. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci.) ·Associated Press
We wondered if Tesla shareholders were fed up with Musk's entry into politics and wanted him back to run his companies. Some are. Among Tesla shareholders, 49% say Musk is a welcome new presence in politics, while 41% say he should stick to business. Ten percent said they weren't sure why Musk was getting into politics.
If Trump wins, Musk has promoted himself to another job: head of a “commission on government efficiency” that will make government run better. Musk has hinted that the federal government may use some of the medicine he applied to Twitter after it buys it in 2022, such as cutting staff and loosening rules to block false and offensive content. Many users of the site, now X, complained of widespread propaganda and a pro-Trump slant. X's value is now a fraction of what Musk paid for it two years ago.
We asked YF listeners if they thought Musk would be able to improve government if he tried to do so. The overall group was split, with 42% saying Musk would be able to make the government better and 41% saying he would make it worse. Twelve percent thought it would make no difference, with the rest undecided.
Tesla shareholders were more optimistic, with 48% saying Musk would make government better, 29% saying he would make it worse, and 15% saying there was no difference.
Majorities in both groups suspect self-interest on Musk's part. Among the group overall, 61% said Musk would use his role in government restructuring to benefit his own companies, which face a variety of federal regulations. Among Tesla shareholders, 57% thought Musk would use his role as an adviser to Trump to benefit his own company.
Maybe that's why some people like the guy: he's always looking for an edge.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist Yahoo Finance. Follow him in X @rickjnewman.
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