Trump's social media stock is making an epic comeback as the election approaches CNN Business

Former President Donald Trump's social media company is on fire on Wall Street. It's all about Trump's perceived chances of retaking the White House.

Until very recently, the Trump Media and Technology Group was in meltdown mode. Its share price fell to a record low of $12.15 on September 23, marking a stunning 82% crash from its high.

But the owner of Truth Social is enjoying a massive rebound of nearly 120% in three weeks, more than doubling its share price. It has risen nearly 50% over the past week and rose another 5% on Monday.

That's a remarkable turnaround, even for a notoriously-volatile stock that's been described as a meme stock on steroids.

Trump Media hasn't announced a sudden revenue stream or a flashy new product that might explain the move. It did not receive approval from Wall Street analysts or major shareholders.

Instead, the shift has been fueled by the perceived odds of Trump winning in November. Trump media has long served as a way for businessmen to bet on the election.

The race for the White House remains incredibly close and could still go either way. But betting markets and some recent polls have shifted slightly in Trump's favor.

“It's really simple. People understand that this stock has the potential to do something if Trump is elected. And if he's not elected, it will probably go to zero,” said Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management.

Trump is the face of the company. He is the most popular user of Truth Social and his 114.75 million shares make him the dominant shareholder.

Trump's stake in the company has risen nearly $1.7 billion since Sept. 23 to just under $3 billion.

Jay Ritter, a University of Florida finance professor who has studied capital markets for four decades, described the 100% spike for Trump media since Sept. 23 as “stunning.”

“Meme stocks thrive on attention, and in the case of the Trump media, the price also reflects expectations of who will win the November election,” Ritter said, pointing to betting markets like Predictit showing that Harris's margin over Trump has disappeared.

Michael Block, chief operating officer and co-founder of AgentSmyth, noted that there is a lot of bullish options activity with the Nov. 15 expiration just days after the election.

“It looks like an electoral bet for Trump to win on Election Day,” Block said. “Trump's poll performance is improving and his alliance with Elon Musk is changing the narrative.”

Despite recent gains, Trump Media's stock price remains far from its March peak of $66. And Trump's shares are still worth about $2 billion less than they were briefly worth in late March.

Beyond the election, Trump Media's share price has benefited from the former president holding onto his stock. Many investors speculated that Trump might dump his shares when lock-up restrictions prevent insiders from selling. However, so far, Trump has not disclosed any stock sales and he has publicly stated that he is not selling.

“If Trump wins the election, if you're convinced he's going to sell, you certainly won't see the moves we've seen,” Tuttle said. “The fact that he said he wouldn't sell — and he actually didn't — provides the backdrop for the rally.”

Ritter has long warned that the market is dramatically overvaluing the Trump media. He is deeply skeptical of Trump Media, arguing that the company is worth little more than the cash on its balance sheet because it has not demonstrated that it has a business plan to turn a profit.

“At today's stock price of about $25, the stock is overvalued by 1,000% or more,” Ritter said, “suggesting at least a 90% decline.”