Donald Trump erases Kamala Harris’ lead in new national poll

Former President Donald Trump has erased Vice President Kamala Harris’ 5-point lead, according to a new national poll released on Sunday.

The race between Trump, the Republican nominee, and Harris, the Democratic nominee, has remained close over the past few months, but Harris had consistently appeared to have a narrow advantage in many national polls. But with just over three weeks until Election Day on November 5, polls appear to be tightening.

A new national poll released Sunday by NBC News showed Trump in a “dead heat” with Harris, with the two candidates tied, each with 48 percent support among registered voters. Notably, that’s a 4-point boost for Trump compared to NBC News’ September poll, and a 1-point decline for Harris.

NBC News’ September poll showed Trump at 44 percent and Harris in the lead by 5 points, at 49 percent.

The new October poll was carried out from October 4 to 8, and included 1,000 registered voters nationally with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Last month’s NBC News poll was conducted from September 13 to 17, with the same number of registered voters and margin of error.

“As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who worked to carry out the NBC poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, said. “The race is a dead heat.”

Newsweek has reached out to Trump’s and Harris’ campaign via email for comment on Sunday morning.

ABC Poll Released on Sunday

ABC News and Ipsos also released a poll on Sunday that showed Trump closing the gap with Harris, although Harris was still slightly ahead. The new survey showed the Democrat at 49 percent among registered voters compared to the Republican’s 47 percent, a margin of 2 points in Harris favor. In September, ABC’s polling showed Harris at 51 percent and Trump at 47 percent among registered voters—a margin of 4 points.

The October poll from ABC included 2,226 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points. In September, the survey included 2,772 registered voters and had the same margin of error.

What National Polling Averages Show

Polling averages still show Harris with a narrow lead over Trump. ABC News’ polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight shows the Democrat ahead by 2.5 points, with 48.5 percent for Harris compared to 46 percent for the former president.

Silver Bulletin, the Substack of FiveThirtyEight’s founder Nate Silver, shows Harris up by an average of 3 points. The Democrat is at 49.2 percent nationally compared to Trump’s 46.2 percent.

While national polling gauges how the popular vote could turn out on Election Day, analysts note that the race will ultimately be decided in several key battleground states due to Electoral College system. Each state is given a set number of Electoral votes based on their respective populations, which sometimes results in the winner of the popular national vote losing to the winner of the Electoral College, as happened with Trump when he ran against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The critical battleground states most analysts are monitoring in this election are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. According to Silver Bulletin, Trump narrowly leads Harris in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, while the Democrat is ahead in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Update, 10/13/24 at 10:03 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information and context.

Update, 10/13/24 at 10:24 a.m. ET: New polling data from ABC News was added.