College football Week 7 predictions: Ohio State vs. Oregon, more picks against the spread

Conference realignment stole a lot from college sports — rivalries, traditions, etc. — but benefits emerged.

It produced Texas' first visit to the Big House, Tennessee's trip to Oklahoma, Michigan and USC's first meeting outside of the Rose Bowl in 65 years.

Next week, No. 1 Texas and No. 5 Georgia will battle for SEC control This week, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Oregon battle it out for the Big Ten

The Buckeyes have been as good as advertised, holding the nation's largest average scoring margin (39.2), the nation's second-highest scoring offense and top-ranked defense.

The Ducks pass the eye test at times, largely struggling to live up to expectations in a season that has seen close upsets to Boise State and Idaho.

Oregon can't contain talent against rare teams that possess more. It can't trust the decision-making of Dillon Gabriel — a sixth-year quarterback who tends to make rookie mistakes, resulting in Oregon's 90th-ranked red-zone offense — against the nation's best pass pressure. It can't rely on a defense that has been torched by the only elite offense (Boise State) this season and has surrendered nearly 40 points per game in three meetings against national title contenders under Dan Lanning.

Since Ryan Day took over in 2019, Ohio State has lost just once before the regular season finale. It came against Oregon in 2021.

Ohio State (-3.5) The Big Ten will turn the advantage against a team it shouldn't.

Arizona State (+6.5) over Utah

It will be another game-time decision for Cam Rising, whose coach said “there's a chance” the quarterback could return. There's also a chance that Lloyd Christmas will make good on his briefcase full of IOUs.

RUTGERS (-2.5) over Wisconsin

The Scarlet Knights made multiple game-changing mistakes at Nebraska. In Jersey, breaks will go their way, while finding lanes against a Wisconsin defense that ranks 75th against the run.

South Carolina (+21.5) over Alabama

Nick Saban may have taken the defense with him. In the last 51 minutes of play, the Crimson Tide have allowed 67 points.

Clemson (-20.5) over Wake Forest

Clemson's back-to-back one-score wins ended the series in a blowout. Wake's 126th-ranked defense will be embarrassed by an offense that averages 48.5 points against an opponent that isn't Georgia.

WASHINGTON (+2.5) over IOWA

The Hawkeyes, coming off a seven-point performance, will have another flashback to the Brian Ferentz era in another matchup with a top-10 defense. Washington's Will Rogers will have no problem moving the chains against a defense that ranks 109th in opponent completion percentage.

Oklahoma (+14.5) over Texas

In a rivalry game decided by one score in nine of the past 11 years — even with Queens leading the nation's top-ranked team — that's a lot of points.

USC (+5.5) over Penn State

James Franklin did not earn our trust. The Nittany Lions went 5-0 for the sixth time since 2017. Only once have they managed to go unbeaten in November, each time suffering their first defeat of the season. History could repeat itself against their toughest opponent after traveling 2,575 miles for their first road game in six weeks.

NOTRE DAME (-23.5) over Stanford

The Irish have taken two weeks to prepare for a team that ranks 125th in yards per game. Notre Dame's last four wins over Stanford have come by an average of 26.5 points.

Arizona (+5.5) over BYU

The Wildcats have thrived in that role over the past 12 months, winning six of seven games as underdogs. Arizona's Noah Fifita — who leads the nation's fifth-ranked passing offense and has lost one game by more than a touchdown in 14 starts as a quarterback — will have plenty of time to work against a defense with a weak pass rush and untested secondary.

Mississippi State (+33.5) over Georgia

It doesn't help that Georgia has a heavyweight bout looming (at Texas). It also doesn't help when the head coach picks fights with his fans. “Honestly, I'm probably disappointed in our fans for the first time,” Kirby Smart said after Georgia's recent home game. “I thought the game lacked crowd-noise, passion and impact energy. … We have to be tough for other teams to play here, but it's not. It's not the same as in the past.”

Tennessee over Florida (-15.5)

Buy the Vols low following their stunning loss at Arkansas. Tennessee — which is 9-2 after the loss under Josh Heupel — still boasts the nation's second-ranked defense and an offense averaging more than 40 points per game. The Gators' 109th-ranked defense will be shown no mercy after last year's disaster.

LSU (+3.5) over Ole Miss

The Rebels haven't won in Death Valley since 2008 and haven't earned a road win against a ranked SEC opponent since 2017. Ole Miss' suspect pass defense faces its first true aerial threat in Garrett Nussmeyer, who ranks fifth in the nation in passing yards and completes nearly 70 percent of his attempts. Brian Kelly is 10-2 in his last 12 games following a layoff.

Betting on college football?

Iowa State over West Virginia (-3)

This creates a trap game, but sometimes the square pick is the right choice. The undefeated Cyclones deserve more respect, bringing the nation's seventh-ranked defense to Morgantown, where the Mountaineers scored 12 points against Penn State's sixth-ranked unit.

Kansas State over Colorado (-4)

How will the Wildcats hold Travis Hunter? Making him a bystander at both ends. It will be difficult for a Heisman candidate to steal the show if the Wildcats' fifth-ranked ground game runs atop a defense that allows more than 155 rushing yards per game. Deion Sanders has lost five straight matches against ranked opponents.

Best bet: Ohio State, Washington, Mississippi State.

season: 45-44-1 (6-11-1).

2013-23 Record: 1,272-1,206-30