The Tesla Robotaxi event follows a decade of unfulfilled promises from Elon Musk

with Tesla With the highly anticipated Robotaxi event hours away, investors will soon get a glimpse of what CEO Elon Musk has to say about CyberCab.

After a decade of unfulfilled promises to deliver autonomous vehicles, capable of traveling reasonable distances safely without a human at the wheel, there is a huge dose of skepticism about what Tesla can do technically and when its robotaxi might hit the market.

The Robotaxis Day, or “We, Robot” event is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM Pacific Time at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California and will be streamed live via X.

An analyst at CFRA, Garrett Nelson, warned in an Oct. 4 preview that closed-course conditions on a movie studio lot could make a Tesla Robotaxi look more advanced than normal traffic and public roads. CFRA has a hold rating on the stock.

Tesla shares fell nearly 1% to $238.77 on Thursday. They are now down about 4% for the year and less than 40% of their record in 2021.

The event comes a week after Tesla reported third-quarter deliveries of 462,890, bringing the number to 1.35 million for the year to date. For last year, Tesla reported 1.81 million deliveries.

Bullish analysts at firms including Wedbush, ARK and RBC Capital Markets expressed optimism in their report about the company's ability to keep growing sales long-term while delivering high-tech products including long-delayed autonomous vehicles, humanoid robotics and other AI-based products. Powered products and services.

Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management told CNBC's “Fast Money” on Wednesday that he will be at the event and hopes to test out the robotaxi.

Munster, a long-time Tesla bull, said he thinks the company will introduce robotaxis in some cities by the end of 2025. He expects Tesla to announce plans to produce an affordable EV, perhaps a stripped-down version of its Model 3. and an electric van.

He said he expected the stock to drop after the event, but it could “make new highs” over the next two years as deliveries begin to accelerate.

Tesla was once seen as a pioneer in autonomous vehicle development, but has never delivered or demonstrated robotaxi technology. The organization is now considered backward.

of the alphabet Waymo in the US, and several Chinese companies, are all operating commercial robotaxi services today.

Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report Wednesday that if Tesla could launch a “Level 4” robotaxi, meaning it could operate without a driver behind the wheel using its current “hardware and software suite,” it would result in a cost-per-mile advantage over peers. .

In addition to the missed deadline, there are safety issues with Tesla's driver assistance systems, which are currently marketed as standard Autopilot and premium full self-driving (supervised) options.

Missy Cummings, a professor at George Mason University and director of the Mason Autonomy and Robotics Center, said Tesla leaders should be able to say how they are solving a problem known as “phantom braking,” which refers to vehicles equipped with ADAS. Apply their brakes unexpectedly, even when driving at highway speeds, with no visible obstacles around them

Tesla's phantom braking issue is the subject of an ongoing investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Cummings, who previously served as the regulator's senior safety adviser, told CNBC, “If they can't solve phantom braking for a Level 2 car, they can't solve it for a Level 4 or 5 car.” Level 2 vehicles include driver assistance systems.

According to data tracked by NHTSA beginning in 2021, there have been 1,399 crashes in which Tesla driver assistance systems engaged within 30 seconds of the crash, and 31 of those crashes resulted in fatalities.

Sam Abulsamid, an analyst at GuideHouse Insights, said Musk or other Tesla executives should be able to say exactly what they plan to drive their vehicles in different weather conditions, such as fog, rain, snow and light or dark tunnels.

He wants to tell Tesla executives whether they will accept full responsibility for the operation of these vehicles, which he calls “table stakes for a true robotaxis without human control.”

Finally, Abulsamid wants to know if Tesla plans to own and operate its robotaxis or lease or sell them to consumers and fleet operators.

“Many companies have made advances toward automated driving technology,” Abulsamid said. “But they failed when it came to finding a business model that could be profitable. Tesla has a lot of challenges to overcome and I want to know how all the pieces fall into place.”

See: It will be another five years before we see a Waymo-like car from Tesla