Tesla Robotaxi Unveils: Expectations Are Low, Can Tesla Overdeliver?

Expectations for Tesla's Robotaxi unveiling on Thursday seem pretty low. Can Tesla surprise us?

On Thursday, Tesla is holding its 'We, Robot' event, which it previously described as its 'robotaxis unveiling'.

Automotive is expected to unveil an electric car dedicated to driving. CEO Elon Musk has hinted that it won't have a steering wheel or pedals.

While that might be exciting on its own for some, those who have followed Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving' (FSD) efforts over the years are a bit more skeptical.

FSD under Tesla's supervision has fallen short of short-term goals stated by CEO Elon Musk, and the system is still about 120 miles away from the program's 3-year critical separation:

This makes its long-term goal, which is for the system to operate unsupervised as a robotaxis, even less credible.

Tesla fans and Wall Street analysts are trying to figure out how this new dedicated robotaxis will fit into those plans, as Tesla has previously focused on making its existing consumer vehicles self-driving.

Wall Street Expectations

There isn't a ton of hype for the event on Wall Street.

Bernstein analyst Tony Sacconaghi commented on the event:

“While Tesla is clearly focused on launching a robotaxi, Waymo and Cruise already operate robotaxis in the US. The available data is obviously incomplete, but as of today Tesla seems to be lagging behind the leaders in the space.”

Ronald Jusico, director of automotive equity research at Guggenheim Securities, thinks Tesla will need to show “a credible path to commercialization of robotaxis in the next 12 to 24 months” to satisfy the road, and he doesn't think that's likely:

Ultimately, there are a lot of boxes that need to be checked, and we think it's highly unlikely that a truly credible path to commercializing robotaxis in the next 12 to 24 months will emerge from this event.

As for William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer, he expects a “sell the news” scenario:

“I wouldn't be surprised, and fully expect, the stock to bounce back in the event. Most of Tesla's analyst day/big announcement trend is that the stock moves in when expectations run high…then there's a letdown.”

Finally, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, who is arguably Tesla's most bullish Wall Street analyst, believes the automaker will clearly differentiate the robotaxi/CyberCab program with its existing FSD:

“Potential initial commercial launch could be in late 2025 or 2026. It is our expectation that Tesla will offer a 'dual' approach to autonomous ridesharing: (1) fully autonomous app-based CyberCab and (2) a 'supervised' autonomous /FSD. Rideshare Services.”

While this is a possibility, it offers its own challenges as it could undermine its current strategy, which it has been selling to customers for 8 years.

Tech by Electrek

I think Jonas is probably right. I think the highlight of the event is going to be the unveiling of the Robotaxi/CyberCab.

We will see the real car, but the trick to make it autonomous will be more interesting.

Is Tesla going to base the hardware on the same system found in its consumer cars? The answer to this question has great implications for the ability to deliver on the promises of self-driving for the millions of vehicles already on the road.

It may be the same, or similar, hardware, but will Tesla soon start using a mapped and geo-fenced approach to offer self-driving rideshare in some markets with its new Robotaxi?

I think that's a real possibility, but it also has implications with Tesla's current efforts.

Given Tesla's resistance to releasing any data related to the FSD program, and the crowdsourced data looking dire, I doubt Tesla will show anything game-changing on the self-driving front at the event.

Where Tesla could potentially over-deliver on expectations at the event is with new cars.

We know that Tesla is developing two new, cheaper vehicles based on the Model 3 and Model Y, with plans to bring them to market within the next year.

If it is, I would expect an unveiling very soon. Therefore, this event is a possible opportunity.

I think it might make more sense than a CyberCab, which would either offer the same thing that Waymo has been doing for years, or rely on Tesla's FSD advancements, which seem capable of offering something unsupervised for a few more years. is not .