CNBC Daily Open: September's blockbuster jobs report changes the calculus

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Monster Jobs Report
According to the US Labor Department, the US economy added 254,000 jobs in September. The figure shattered the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 150,000 and was well above the upwardly revised 159,000 in August. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in the previous month. These numbers suggest a recession is unlikely.

reverse damage
Major US indexes rose on Friday, erasing losses from the previous four days to close higher for the week. yield on US 10-year Treasury Added about 12 basis points, hitting about 4%. Asia-Pacific markets advanced on Monday. of Japan Nikkei 225 led the pack, with an increase of about 2.2% yen It fell below 149 against the US dollar during the day.

Rio Tinto is looking at Arcadia
World's second largest mining company Rio Tinto US lithium producer Arcadium has expressed interest in acquiring it, the two companies confirmed in separate statements on Monday. The deal is still tentative and may not go through, Rio Tinto said. But if it does, Rio Tinto will become the world's third-largest lithium supplier.

Starboard values ​​looking at Pfizer
Activist investor Starboard Value has an estimated $1 billion stake in Pfizer and wants to turn around the pharmaceutical company, according to people familiar with the matter. Approached to starboard Pfizer Former CEO Ian Reed and former finance chief Frank D'Amelio will remain on board with the plan, sources said.

[PRO] 'Asia's Next Dragon'
Asian countries such as India and Japan have drawn interest over the past year for the stable performance of their stock markets. And China reclaimed the spotlight after the country unveiled a raft of economic stimulus last week, sending Chinese stocks soaring. But one fund manager thinks “Asia's next dragon” is none of these countries.

Oh, flies on the wall when the U.S. Labor Department reaches its final list of September jobs numbers. I imagine a bored executive exclaiming, “Has anyone used PRODUCT instead of SUM in Excel?”

Because it seems only a confusion between the multiplication and addition functions can lead us to the completely unexpected number of 254,000 nonfarm payrolls added in September—about 70% more than economists expected.

By comparison, August's number was only 12% below estimates, and even July's extremely disappointing report, which triggered the sell-off in early August, was “only” 37% below forecasts.

Perhaps the Fed has been alerted as well. “It's doubtful” the Fed would have cut rates by half a percentage point “if it had known this report would be so strong,” said David Royle, chief financial and investment officer at financial services firm Thrivent.

In fact, the report shattered expectations so thoroughly that it called into question assumptions and models about the economy. Perhaps that's why the stock rose only temporarily during the release.

D S&P 500 0.9% climb, Dow Jones Industrial Average Added 0.81% and Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.22%.

Still, those numbers were big enough that they erased the losses of the previous four trading days. For the week, the S&P rose 0.22%, the Dow rose 0.09% and the Nasdaq rose 0.1% — a huge jump, considering it was down more than 1% at Thursday's close.

Perhaps Friday's measured market reaction was muted because the jobs report, while confirming the recession is a ghost for now, almost guarantees the Fed will cut rates by – at most – a quarter point at its November meeting.

No need to be a fly on the wall when the Fed talks about rates. Either way, they publish the minutes of their meetings. Jobs data is crucial to the economy Now I'll continue buzzing around the Labor Department office.

– CNBC's Jeff Cox, Alex Haring and Lisa Kailai Hahn contributed to this story.