The strike is set to shut down major US ports

A dockworkers' strike is set to shut down most US ports indefinitely, threatening significant trade and economic disruption ahead of the presidential election and busy holiday shopping season.

Several thousand members of the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) are preparing to walk out Tuesday at 14 major ports along the East and Gulf coasts, shutting down container traffic from Maine to Texas.

Barring last-minute intervention, the action would have marked the first shutdown in nearly 50 years.

President Joe Biden has the power to suspend the strike for 80 days to allow for further negotiations, but the White House has said he does not plan to act.

The two sides are fighting over a six-year master contract that covers about 25,000 port workers According to the US Maritime Alliance, known as USMX, which represents shipping firms, port associations and marine terminal operators engaged in container and roll-on/roll-off operations.

Negotiations have been stalled for months and the current contract between the parties expires on Monday.

Union boss Harold Daggett has called for significant pay rises for his members, while raising concerns about the threat from automation.

USMX accused the union of refusing to bargain, filing a complaint with labor regulators asking them to order the union back to the table.

Under the previous contract, starting wages ranged from $20 to $39 an hour, depending on a worker's experience. Workers also get other benefits, such as bonuses linked to container trade.

Mr. Daggett pointed out The union wants to see hourly wages increase by five dollars per year over the life of the six-year contract, which it estimates is about 10% per year.

The ILA said the workers are being owed after the shipping firm's profits soared during the Covid pandemic, while inflation hit wages. It has warned its members, including those not directly involved in the dispute, to expect mass strikes, although the exact number is unclear.

The union says it represents more than 85,000 people; It claims about 47,000 active members His annual report to the Department of Labor.

Time-sensitive imports, such as food, may be among the first affected products.

According to the Farm Bureau, ports handle about 14% of seaborne agricultural exports and more than half of imports, including a significant portion of the banana and chocolate trade.

Other sectors disrupted include tin, tobacco and nicotine, Oxford Economics said. Apparel and footwear companies and European automakers, which route many of their shipments through the Port of Baltimore, will also take a hit.

Imports into the U.S. rose over the summer, as many businesses took steps to expedite shipments ahead of the strike.

“I don't think we'll see an immediate, significant economic impact…but over a couple of weeks, if the strike goes on for a long time, we could start to see prices go up and some product shortages,” said Seth Harris, a professor at Northeastern University. and former White House adviser on labor affairs.

According to Grace Zemmer, associate US economist at Oxford Economics, more than a third of exports and imports could be affected by the strike, which could hit US economic growth by at least $4.5 billion per week of the strike, although others have estimated the economic hit could be higher.

He said more than 100,000 people could be temporarily out of work as the effects of the stoppage spread.

“This is really a trigger event, which will see the dominoes fall in the coming months,” said Peter Sand, principal analyst at ocean freight analysis firm Genetta, warning that the stand-off is likely to lead to larger shipping cost increases.

That will hurt consumers and businesses that rely on so-called “just-in-time” supply chains for products, he added.

The shutdown injects uncertainty into the U.S. economy at a delicate time.

As the US election approaches in six weeks, the economy is slowing and the unemployment rate is rising.

The strike risks putting President Biden in a difficult spot.

US presidents can intervene in labor disputes that threaten national security or safety by imposing an 80-day cooling-off period, forcing workers to return to work while negotiations continue.

In 2002, Republican President George W. Bush intervened to reopen ports after 11 days of West Coast dockworkers' strikes.

The US Chamber of Commerce business group is calling on President Biden to take action.

“Americans have felt the pain of delays and product shortages during pandemic-era supply chain backlogs in 2021. It would be unconscionable to allow contract disputes to cause such a blow to our economy,” said Suzanne P. Clark, president and chief business group executive.

The ILA's Mr. Daggett endorsed Democrat Biden in 2020, but has criticized the president more recently, citing pressure to reach a deal on West Coast dockworkers a year ago. He met Donald Trump in July.

While any strike disruption could hurt Democrats, the cost of alienating allies in the labor movement weeks before the election will be greater, said William Brucher, a professor of labor studies and employment relations at Rutgers University.

But public support for the strike could be tested by the controversy, championed by Mr Daggett, who were acquitted Alleged links to organized crime in a 2004 case by federal prosecutors. A related civil case remains unresolved.

Films such as the 1954 classic On the Waterfront once defined the image of the dockworkers' union, but Professor Brucher said he felt historical memory had largely faded and many people shared dockworkers' concerns about the cost of living and automation.

“As much as it might influence public opinion against the ILA, a strike by ILA members is their decision and I don't think they will be influenced by public opinion in any meaningful way,” he said.

“What is more likely to happen is that strike pressure will probably force employers to go back to the table with a much more substantial offer.”