Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense has been better than you think

(Editor's Note: (This is from Mike Sandor's Pick Six of September 30, 2024.)

Let's count down how Jayden Daniels is transforming the Washington Commander and NFC East race.

The Commanders dominated Arizona 42-14 to move atop the NFC East to 3-1. Their Daniels-quarterbacked offense is setting up more times than anyone could realistically expect. As, Chief Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers high.

Washington scored on 68 percent of its drives, the highest rate through four games for any team since at least 2000, according to TruMedia. You may recognize the factions just behind the commanders on that list. Even Brady's 2007 New England Patriots didn't score it often enough to start their historic undefeated regular season.

The Commanders' offense has produced at least an 8.0 EPA in every game this season. Washington played 387 regular-season games from 2000 to 2023, without hitting the mark in more than two consecutive games in a season.

The 4-game streak is the second-longest in the league by any team starting quarterback since 2000. Russell Wilson's 2012 Seattle Seahawks combined for five such games. Washington can tie that record at home against Cleveland in Week 5.

The table above lists the longest such streaks by a rookie quarterback since 2000. Almost all other streaks came later in the season after quarterbacks had some experience

Before the season, five NFL executives predicted Washington would finish 14th in the NFC this season. An executive commander finished sixth and won the NFC East. Why?

“I put them as high upside for a few reasons,” the executive said Sunday night. “One, I was on the Giants. Two, I was in Dallas. Three, I was a toss-up on Philly. Four, we're talking about a Heisman winner coming in and possibly being electric, paired with an offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) who is more prepared than anyone in the league to manage that player right now. It's a perfect marriage.”

One ranking executive in Washington called the NFC East now a “crapshoot.” He gave the edge to Washington, followed by Philadelphia, Dallas and the Giants. He noted that Daniels is a “difference maker” who is difficult to guard, and said Dan Quinn, the new coach, is instilling faith in Washington. But he cautioned that it remains early, and that Daniels still has to prove he can hold up physically after taking the sometimes big hits in college.

Daniels is completing 82 percent of his passes, the best in league history among players with at least 75 attempts per game through four games, per Fox. Brady was 79.2 percent in 2007. Daniels completed 71 percent (20 of 28) of passes at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That comfortably leads the league this season (Brock Purdy is second at 66 percent).

What happens when defenses can better read commanders' tendencies?

“Great teams have a next pitch,” the executive said. “It will be interesting to see what it looks like as it goes.”

Scheduling can even help things. Washington faces Cleveland, Baltimore, Chicago and Pittsburgh over the next six weeks. These teams are allowing a combined 18.5 points per game to opposing offenses.

The Commanders won't face the Eagles or Cowboys, who are both 2-2, until Week 11, four of their last seven games against those two opponents.

(Photo: Christian Petersen/Getty Images)