Prisco's Week 4 NFL picks: Ravens cool off undefeated Bills, Packers hand Vikings first loss, Lions top Seahawks

Is it hard to pick NFL games this year or what? Not just against proliferation.

I was 7-9 last week straight-up after all the uncertainty of Week 3 which saw plenty of upsets and blown survivor pools. This drops my straight record to 24-24, which tells you how crazy this season has been so far. Am I .500 straight-up? What the heck.

Unlike the spread, it was worse last week. I went 6-10 to drop my record to 23-22-3. At least I'm over .500 for the ATS pick. However, that record is tied for the lead in our CBSSports.com expert picks. We are some experts.

So let's take a tour. We have one more week of September games, and then it's October, a month where things usually start to crystallize.

Here's hoping I can navigate this last September week without too much danger. It can't be worse than last week.

The Cowboys have lost two straight home games, while the Giants impressed last week by beating the Browns. Dallas has issues on both lines and the Giants snagged Deshaun Watson last Sunday. But the Cowboys will tighten things up in pass protection and the defense will be better. Dallas gets back on track.

sort: Cowboys 27, Giants 19 (Result: Cowboys 20, Giants 15)

Bonus: SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein is on a 22-8 ATS roll in Cowboys games, and we can tell you he's leaning toward the over in this prime-time matchup against the Giants. See what side he's taking against the spread on SportsLine.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

This is a big early division game with both teams losing. The Saints offense came back to reality last week in a loss to the Eagles and must now play an improved Falcons defense. The Atlanta offense will also be challenged by a tough Saints defense. Look for a low scoring game with the Saints upset.

sort: Saints 20, Falcons 17

Bonus: The SportsLine projection model, which has more than $7,000 for $100 players in top-rated NFL picks since inception, favors the Saints against the Falcons in Week 4. See other picks supporting the model at SportsLine.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Bengals are 0-3 and haven't looked good, especially on defense. The Panthers won back Andy Dalton last week and now he will face his former team. Look for Dalton to play well against a struggling Bengals defense. It would be high scoring, but in the end the Bengals saved their season.

sort: Bengals 31, Panthers 25

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Rams came from behind to beat the 49ers last week, while the Bears lost in Indianapolis. Chicago isn't running the football, which puts a lot of pressure on Caleb Williams. The Rams still have Matthew Stafford, who thrives regardless of whether he's throwing to the outside. The Rams put it behind Stafford and dropped the Bears to 1-3.

sort: Rams 26, Bears 20

Bonus: SportsLine's NFL expert Jason LaCanfora makes this game part of his early best bets every Monday morning on SportsLine. Check out the rest of his first Week 4 plays here.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

It's a game of the week. The Vikings are 3-0 and riding high, while the Packers are 2-1 and have won two games with Malik Willis playing quarterback. Because the defense has been outstanding. Same for the Vikings. That means it should be a low scoring game. The Packers take it.

sort: Packers 21, Vikings 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Jaguars are 0-3 and coming off a horrible loss Monday night, which means it's been a short week for a team playing bad football. The Texans weren't good against the Vikings last week, but C.J. Stroud will be back here against Jacksonville's poor defense. Texans take it.

sort: Texans 30, Jaguars 16

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Steelers are riding high at 3-0 and their style is traveling well. They are a physical defense that will limit the Colts run game and Anthony Richardson will beat them. he won't The Steelers and Justin Fields will do just enough on offense to pull out a win.

sort: Steelers 20, Colts 16

Bonus: The SportsLine projection model, which has more than $7,000 for $100 players in the top-rated NFL picks since inception, favors the Steelers to cover the Colts in Week 4. See other picks supporting the model at SportsLine

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Broncos are playing back-to-back road games, but they remain in West Virginia. They played well last week beating the Bucs, but this is a tough defense. This will be a problem for Bo Nix. Aaron Rodgers had it going last week and it continues. The jet is big.

sort: Jets 27, Broncos 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

This is the second straight road game for the Eagles against the NFC South after defeating the Saints last week. The Bucs lost to the Broncos last week was awful, but this could be a sandwich game between the Lions and Eagles. The Bucs defense and offensive line were bumped up last week. That carries over. Philadelphia takes it.

sort: Eagles 23, Bucs 19

Sunday, 4:05 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

It's the second straight road game in a short week for the Commanders, which is tough. The Cardinals played well, but they lost two very close games at 1-2. I'm looking for Kyler Murray to win the shootout with Jayden Daniels. This will be fun to watch.

sort: Cardinal 33, Commander 27

Sunday, 4:05 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

It's a long trip for a Patriots team that hasn't been playing well against a 49ers team that has had a lot of injuries. The 49ers blew their game against the Rams last week, but they'll get back on track here. Brock Purdy will play well, while the defense limits a bad Pats offense.

sort: 49ers 24, Patriots 7

Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This one looks at the status of Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. If he plays, the Chargers have a chance to win. If he doesn't, I still think they put it off. The Chiefs have been playing consecutive road games and haven't looked as crisp this season. This will be another close one for them.

sort: Chief 23, Charger 20

Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Both teams are losing badly at home. The Raiders are considering a quarterback change, while many in Cleveland don't mind. Deshaun Watson is not playing well. I think he'll pick it up here and play better. The Browns won their second road game of the season.

sort: Browns 23, Raiders 17

Sunday, 8:20 pm ET (NBC, fubo)

This is a big game for AFC supremacy. The Bills are playing as well as anyone at 3-0, while the Ravens are coming off an impressive road win against Dallas. Cowboys run it right by cowboys, and they'll do the same to this one. Josh Allen has been outstanding, but how much better would Derrick Henry be? I think the Ravens cruised to victory.

sort: Ravens 24, Bills 21

Monday, 7:30 pm ET (ESPN, fubo)

The Titans are 0-3 and the Dolphins have major issues without Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. Tennessee went to Miami and rallied last year to beat the Dolphins behind Will Lewis. He hasn't been the same quarterback this year, turned it around too much, but I think he can have success in this one. The Titans will win.

sort: Titans 25, Dolphins 21

Monday, 8:15 pm ET (ABC, fubo)

This is a big proof game for the Seahawks. They are 3-0, but the schedule has not been difficult. This will be the game. The Lions have played well on defense, which will make it a challenge for Geno Smith. The Lions' offense, which hasn't been very good, has to go here. The lion takes it.

sort: Lions 27, Seahawks 20