Yes! Mortgage rates have indeed moved higher after the Fed cut rates

We publish daily coverage of mortgage rate movements and have done so for nearly 20 years. It's a great place to quickly check in on rate trends and understand what's true and what's important If you've checked in at any point in the past few days/weeks, you've probably seen one of several attempts to remind readers that today's Fed rate cut has not only resulted in lower mortgage rates at all, but that mortgage rates are actually often the Fed's. Day passes move higher on the same day.

Today it happened.

Interestingly, mortgage rates were slightly higher than yesterday before the Fed's announcement. Bonds that point to mortgage rates actually point to higher rates tomorrow unless there is a modest improvement overnight.

Given the short attention span, here's a bullet point list of why this paradox might exist:

• The Fed meets 8 times a year where mortgages can move every day
• Bonds affecting mortgages can go every second.
• This means mortgage rates have a long head start towards lower rates while the Fed waits for their meeting date.
• A trader would be foolish to hold a tradable rate/bond in higher territory if they knew, as you did, that the Fed was cutting rates today. Why would they wait for mortgage rates to trade lower? Nothing has stopped them and that is why rates have fallen so much in recent months.

Some other bullet point angles on the same topic:

• The actual Fed rate cut itself is only one part of the Fed day and usually not the most important part
• The Fed releases a rate outlook from each member every other meeting. Today's meeting was one of them
• The Fed also conducts a post-announcement press conference where the Fed Chair can refine market takeaways and help shape expectations for the road ahead.

In not so many words, Fed Chair Powell's press conference was less rate-friendly than you might expect given the 0.50% cut in the Fed funds rate.

Here's the kicker: Nothing about today means much for the trajectory from here on out. There is perhaps a slightly greater risk that recent rate lows represent a floor until economic data makes a case that rates should be lower, but there is no way to know exactly what rates will do in the future. If you don't believe after today, well… please believe.