Harris-Trump new exclusive presidential polls: Who’s winning Pennsylvania — the most important state?

Given the recent polls and the collapse of the lead he once held over President Joe Biden, any path Donald Trump has to the White House must go through Pennsylvania — generally acknowledged as the most important swing state. Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are the most among the seven top swing states.

And in a series of new polls conducted by USA TODAY and Suffolk University, the state appears to be turning hard toward Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who leads Trump — not only in the state but in two of Pennsylvania’s key counties, according to three exclusive polls taken after last week’s debate.

With seven weeks until Election Day, Harris leads Trump, the Republican nominee, 49%-46%, in Pennsylvania, a statewide poll of 500 likely Pennsylvania voters conducted from Wednesday to Sunday found.

The results are within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, but represent a bigger margin than President Joe Biden enjoyed when he won the state in 2020 by 1.5 points, or Trump, who carried the state by less than 1 percentage point over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Both campaigns have spent many days in the state and will return many more times in the final 49 days, but Tanya Brown, a 55-year-old social worker from Norristown, Pa., told pollsters she already has decided: She plans to vote for Harris.

“Besides the fact that she’s totally qualified, she’s decent and confident — and democracy is at stake,” she said. When asked about Trump, she said: “I don’t know if I can stomach another four years of this idiot. It’s just the uncouthness. You’re constantly on edge.”

Along with Harris’ statewide edge over Trump, she leads in Erie (48%-44%) and Northampton (50%-45%) counties — two bellwether counties that historically have predicted who wins the state — additional USA Today polls found.

The USA Today poll found that Harris is dominating with the state’s female voters, 56%-39%, while Trump carries male voters by a slimmer 53%-41% edge. Harris edged Trump among independent voters, 43%-38%.

“This is female-gender advantage on steroids,” said Dave Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “In all three data sets, the women margin is around almost twice around Trump’s edge among men.”

Harris also is more popular than Trump, with 49% having a favorable opinion of her, compared with 47% with an unfavorable opinion. Forty-three percent of Pennsylvania’s likely voters said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, while 54% had an unfavorable opinion.

The polls were taken after Harris handily won the only debate between the two candidates. While Harris immediately called for another debate, Trump last week said he would not debate her again.

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