Ford stock falls despite Q3 sales beat as 2024 profit forecast points to lower end

Ford ( F ) reported third-quarter earnings after hours on Monday, beating on revenue but guiding at the low end of its full-year forecast. Ford's results follow rival GM's blowout Q3 results and third profit guidance boost for the year.

Ford reported revenue of $46.2 billion versus an estimated $41.9 billion, down from the $47.8 billion reported last quarter but up 5% from the $43.8 billion reported a year ago, per Bloomberg. Ford posted estimated adjusted EPS of $0.49 on adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) of $2.6 billion. Ford said net income came in at $900 million, impacted by a previously disclosed one-time $1 billion EV-related charge.

Ford lowered its full-year profit forecast, with the automaker now seeing 2024 adjusted EBIT “to be around $10 billion,” down from its previous range of $10 billion to $12 billion. In a media call with reporters, Ford Vice Chair and CFO John Lawler cited “supplier constraints” as the reason for lower sales of the Ford Pro and Ford Blue.

Ford stock fell more than 5% in after-hours trading.

“We have made strategic decisions and taken aggressive actions to build a competitive advantage over Ford in key areas such as Ford Pro, international operations, software and next-generation electric vehicles,” Ford President and CEO Jim Farley said in a statement. “Importantly over time, we have significant financial upside as we bend the curve on cost and quality, our team's key focus.”

As part of the Ford+ plan, Ford has divided its business into three units: Ford Blue for the traditional gas-powered business, Ford Model E for the EV segment, and Ford Pro for the commercial and super-duty truck business. Analysts expect the following for Q3:

• Ford Blue: $26.2 billion in revenue, $1.627 billion in EBIT

• Model E: Revenue of $1.2 billion, – EBIT of $1.224 billion

• Ford Pro: $15.7 billion in revenue, $1.814 billion in EBIT

Ford said it expects full-year Model E losses to be around $5 billion, down slightly from the $5.5 billion previously estimated.

Ford's Q3 US deliveries, reported earlier this month, jumped 4.3% year over year to 504,039 vehicles, though they were still down from the 536,050 delivered last quarter. Ford said EV sales, powered by the Ford Lightning pickup and Ford e-Transit van, were up 12% year-over-year. Ford hybrid vehicles, led by the Maverick pickup, grew 38% year over year.

GM, on the other hand, has raised its guidance every quarter this year, and now sees adjusted EBIT of $14 billion to $15 billion (previously $13 billion-$15 billion), among other metrics.

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