Chiefs are 7-0 but not quite perfect. Here’s how to unleash vintage Mahomes: Sando’s Pick Six

The Kansas City Chiefs’ winning machine powered through another opponent Sunday with the inevitable efficiency we’ve come to expect.

Consecutive victory No. 13 — which matched the franchise record — was hard-fought, like so many Chiefs victories these days: 27-20 over Gardner Minshew and the Las Vegas Raiders.

In some ways, Kansas City’s second 13-game winning streak of the Patrick Mahomes era is even more impressive than the 2019-20 version, simply for the stylistic transformation the Chiefs have made. They are scoring much fewer points per game during this streak (30.8 then to 23.5 now), and they have been favored by much less (-6.6 average spread then to -1.7 now). Sustained winning is tough.

“The great coaches evolve to whatever the moment is, and that’s what Andy Reid has done,” an exec from a rival team said.

The Pick Six column dares to ask a question that has lingered now that we can no longer pick Mahomes’ passer rating out of a lineup (it’s 84.9). What would have to happen for the Chiefs to have it all — the roaring, big-play offense that Mahomes fueled to great heights upon becoming a starter in 2018 and the tough-as-nails Steve Spagnuolo defense that has subsidized the offense more recently?

The answer lies not in the record books, but in the history books. While the Chiefs have impressively built the defense that Dan Marino never enjoyed, those old Miami Dolphins teams did fix what ailed their offense after Marino, like Mahomes, flashed onto the scene spectacularly, only to see his production settle at the same point Mahomes finds himself in 2024. The full menu this week:

• Mahomes, Marino and key to resurgence
• Commanders destiny, enabled by Bears?
• Takeaways from Tua Tagovailoa’s return
• Rams–Vikings fallout beyond officiating
• The adventures of Anthony Richardson
• Two-minute drill: Browns protecting Watson

1. What can Marino’s career production arc tell us about the state of Mahomes? Time to find a bookend tackle in Kansas City.

Marino shattered the NFL record with 48 touchdown passes in his first full season as the Dolphins’ quarterback. It was no fluke. Marino, part of the 1983 quarterback draft class featuring fellow Hall of Famers John Elway and Jim Kelly, led the league in passing yards and touchdowns in each of his first three full seasons as a starter.

Mahomes began his career with similar audacity. He passed for 5,097 yards with 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in his first full season as the Kansas City Chiefs’ starter. His first three seasons as a starter were the modern equivalent to Marino’s, with Mahomes throwing nearly five touchdown passes for every interception, a 114-23 ratio from 2018-20 (see table below).

The relative slide in production for Mahomes more recently, punctuated by his unrecognizable stat line this season (eight touchdowns with nine interceptions), tracks with Marino’s career production timeline. Supporting casts change. Opposing defenses adjust. Even the best must recalibrate.

The chart below illustrates the Marino-Mahomes parallel by showing each player’s passing yardage per game in relation to league averages.

Mahomes’ Chiefs have obviously won more than Marino’s Dolphins ever did, with a 3-0 lead in Lombardi Trophies. Marino’s experience still could provide a blueprint for the Chiefs in one specific area.

While those Dolphins offenses fell off as receivers Mark Clayton and Mark Duper aged, the offensive line was the bigger problem. Hall of Fame center Dwight Stephenson suffered a career-ending injury in Marino’s fifth season. Injuries limited Marino’s left tackle through the late 1980s.

Marino’s quick release helped, same as Mahomes’ scrambling bails out the Chiefs’ problems at tackle. But do the Chiefs really want Mahomes’ scramble rate to continue increasing at its current rate?

While Aaron Rodgers’ scramble rate fell with each of his four MVP seasons, from 7.5 percent in 2011 to 3.0 percent in 2021, Mahomes is increasingly using his legs to escape trouble as his 30th birthday approaches next season. It’s working, but is the trend sustainable?

“It takes a lot of effort to get everyone on the same page for the scramble drill,” a veteran coach said of the current Chiefs. “The only guys who can do it when you need it in a pinch are the veterans. They get slow and worn out. Mahomes is a gladiator in the Coliseum and the lions are right on him.”

Marino’s production spiked in the early 1990s after the Dolphins solidified their left tackle situation by using a first-round pick on Richmond Webb, who began his career with seven consecutive Pro Bowls (Marino suffered a torn Achilles’ tendon in 1993 and struggled to maintain elite production thereafter).

The Chiefs used first- or second-round picks on receivers Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy over the past three drafts. They spent a conditional 2024 fourth-rounder on veteran DeAndre Hopkins last week.

These moves were all understandable, but is the fix for Mahomes the same as it was for Marino? The Chiefs opened the season with second-round rookie Kingsley Suamataia at left tackle, then replaced him with 2023 third-rounder Wanya Morris. On the right side, Jawaan Taylor has a league-high 26 penalties since the start of last season. What if these situations do not stabilize?

“I might find a way to get a real tackle, a legitimate one-side-or-the-other tackle, and solidify that for the next five years to protect the quarterback so he is not running for his life and having to make all the plays,” a longtime personnel executive said.

Perhaps the Chiefs remain confident Suamataia or Morris will develop. The trade deadline (Nov. 5) provides an unlikely avenue for upgrading. Free agency or the draft are the more likely resources (Kansas City holds Tennessee’s pick in the third round from the L’Jarius Sneed trade, in addition to its own third-rounder, so there is capital available to maneuver).

The Chiefs’ ability to win every week under changing circumstances almost no matter what is remarkable. They rank ninth in offensive EPA per play and first in offensive success rate (the defense ranks sixth and 17th, respectively, in those categories, per TruMedia). And they have Mahomes to pull out the close games almost every time.

But as the table below shows, the Chiefs’ 23.5-point scoring average during their 13-game winning streak ranks last among the 12 winning streaks of 13 games or longer since 2000.

With some diminished weaponry and instability at tackle, Mahomes has thrown a league-high 23 interceptions over his last 23 regular-season games (since the start of 2023). He has the fifth-lowest sack rate but has taken the second-most hits among quarterbacks (136). He ranks 24th in passer rating over that span, 13th in EPA per pass play and eighth in passing touchdowns. He’s still a unanimous Tier 1 quarterback — in the middle of this uneven stretch, he won his third Super Bowl MVP — but the abrupt change in statistical profile is hard to ignore.

Mahomes completed 27 of 38 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns against Las Vegas. It was a bit of an adventure.

The Chiefs’ lead was 17-13 in the third quarter when back-to-back holding penalties against Morris, the left tackle, forced Kansas City into first-and-16 from its own 2-yard line. Mahomes threw over the middle for Travis Kelce, only to have the Raiders tip the ball and intercept it, giving them possession at the Kansas City 3-yard line. The Chiefs’ defense turned over the ball on downs.

Does winning mask all?

“Andy Reid doesn’t miss anything,” the opposing coach said. “He knows there are many ways to win a game. He has done it with Tyreek Hill and he’s seen it work just fine in a two-back offense with Edgar Bennett (in Green Bay three decades ago). He drafts Mahomes, watches all the college tape and that is where we are right now. But he is an offensive lineman at heart, and he doesn’t miss that (the tackle position needs help). Andy doesn’t win 300 games because he feels like he is in a comfort zone. That is not the way it is, even when you win (13) in a row.”

2. There is apparently no karma like post-Dan Snyder Commanders karma.

Before ceding the final fateful Hail Mary, the Chicago Bears had put the Washington Commanders in a nearly impossible position. The Bears had drained the fourth-quarter game clock from 4:21 to 0:25 before scoring a touchdown and two-point conversion for a three-point lead. They kicked off to the goal line, forcing Washington to bleed another six seconds off the clock during a return to the 24-yard line.

The setup was nearly perfect. Washington needed all but the final two seconds to reach its own 48-yard line, too far for a shot at the tying field goal. The game was seemingly over.

HAIL NOAH!!!!!!!!!!

📺 #CHIvsWAS CBS pic.twitter.com/nRr3sIF17K

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) October 27, 2024

The Commanders were the 48th team since 2000 to take over possession in a similar situation: down three, at least 75 yards from the opponent’s goal line, between 15-25 seconds remaining on the game clock when the ball was kicked off to them. Five of the previous 47 made tying field goals. Two others missed.

None of the previous 47 had scored a touchdown. With Washington 52 yards away, its quarterback playing through sore ribs, the Bears felt confident enough for one of their cornerbacks, Tyrique Stevenson, to taunt the Washington fans even after Commanders center Tyler Biadasz snapped the ball on the final play. (Stevenson apologized on social media after the game.)

GO DEEPER

Bears’ Stevenson jaws with fans moments before giving up Hail Mary

Stevenson taunting the crowd during the play then runs over to tip the ball to Brown for the win. Incredible. pic.twitter.com/nDS7zvIWhR

— Stuckey (@Stuckey2) October 28, 2024

The rest is part of the Commanders’ new history, which no longer feels linked to the 23 seasons Snyder owned the team.

Jayden Daniels holding the ball for nearly 13 seconds before launching it short of the goal line. The Bears’ Stevenson, realizing the play was underway, running from near the sideline back toward the action, arriving in time to deflect the pass. Receiver Noah Brown, lurking in the end zone uncovered, behind the mass of bodies, catching the ball on the rebound for the walk-off score, soon to be greeted by receiver Terry McLaurin and a wave of teammates. CBS’ Jim Nantz screaming, “It’s a miracle!” Coach Dan Quinn exulting with linebacker Frankie Luvu before throwing his headset to the ground in what had to be disbelief.

A month ago, we wondered how the Commanders could top the statement of a touchdown pass Daniels delivered to McLaurin to help win a shootout at Cincinnati. Now we know.

3. The Dolphins’ offense returned to life with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup. Here’s what we’ve learned.

Two stories played out in Florida as Arizona pulled out a 28-27 victory over the Dolphins.

The Cardinals stacked back-to-back victories for the first time since they started 7-0 in 2021. This was big for Arizona to keep pace in an underwhelming NFC West. It was big for general manager Monti Ossenfort and coach Jonathan Gannon as they try to show progress on the field in their second season together. It was also big for Kyler Murray and rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. to connect consistently (six receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown on seven targets).

Tagovailoa’s return was the bigger story given all the implications for him and the team. My top three takeaways from Tagovailoa and the Dolphins:

• Tua’s value enhanced: Tagovailoa comes out looking better than the Dolphins’ roster construction and offensive coaching.

Tagovailoa is seen by coaches and executives as a Tier 3 quarterback unable to carry a team, so it’s striking to see how different the Dolphins’ offense has been with and without him. The evidence suggests the personnel department should have had better options behind him, knowing Tagovailoa’s health was fragile. Even then, it was surprising that coach Mike McDaniel could not get more from the offense when Tagovailoa was sidelined.

“I think there is blame to go around,” an exec said. “Nobody has done less with some of the best perimeter help in the league, but did they really think Skylar Thompson was going to be the answer? There is fault for the front office, for the coach and for executing. Not even being able to function.”

The Dolphins were down to third quarterback Tyler Huntley after Thompson lasted only one start. That is a big mitigating factor for McDaniel and the coaching staff. Miami is the only team this season to start a true No. 3 quarterback (I’m excluding Jameis Winston, who technically was No. 3 for Cleveland in Week 7 before starting Sunday).

Miami went five consecutive games without surpassing 15 points, starting with the Week 2 game Tagovailoa failed to finish following his concussion. This was the Dolphins’ longest such streak since 2004 and tied for the third-longest in franchise history, per Pro Football Reference.

With Tagovailoa in the lineup Sunday, the Dolphins hit season highs on offense in points (27) and EPA (10.6).

GO DEEPER

Jones: Tua Tagovailoa’s return to play prompts conflicting feelings, but QB knows what he wants

• Tua’s motives pure: Tagovailoa’s love for the game appears to be the driving force behind his decision to risk future concussions. I don’t buy the idea that he’s financially conflicted after signing a $212 million contract in the offseason.

Tagovailoa has already earned $70 million. He’s not hurting financially. While the Dolphins could try to reclaim bonus money if Tagovailoa retired, I don’t think they would take a cutthroat approach to such a situation. When Andrew Luck retired from the Indianapolis Colts in 2019, the team let him keep $19 million in bonus money it could have reclaimed.

“I agree 100 percent,” the exec said. “I think he has love for the game and he’s beyond even deciding if he is going to play. The question for me is, what if he has another one?”

• Week 9 is big: The Dolphins would fall to 2-6 if they lose at Buffalo next week. That record might turn some teams into sellers at the trade deadline, which passes two days after Miami’s game against the Bills. This season might be too important for the Dolphins to think along those lines if Tagovailoa remains healthy at the deadline.

One exec doubted Dolphins ownership would have the patience at this stage to start selling. The future in Miami could become challenging for a team that carried the NFL’s oldest snap-weighted roster into Week 8.

4. Vikings-Rams fallout trifecta: officiating, game management and suspected trade-talk agenda

• On an officiating fix: The referee and umpire were the only on-field officials with eyes in Minnesota’s offensive backfield when Rams defensive lineman Byron Young grabbed quarterback Sam Darnold’s facemask as the Vikings mounted a desperate drive in the final minute Thursday night. Neither saw the foul, which was obvious to anyone watching the Amazon Prime video feed.

Why couldn’t the league implement a replay mechanism allowing officials to make the correct call, overturning what became a drive-ending safety?

Replay tends to result in flags being picked up, not put down. The league previously empowered replay to catch defensive pass-interference penalties that the on-field officials missed. The experiment was a disaster.

“They can’t teach the replay officials judgment,” a team exec said. “Pass-interference replay was done after one year. No one even brought it up to re-vote it in. This is the type of blatant missed call that happens once or twice a year in however many thousand plays, where two guys miss what everyone watching on TV can see.”

• Whether O’Connell endangered Darrisaw: Coach Kevin O’Connell’s decision to call a running play instead of a quarterback kneel with 35 seconds left in the second quarter opened him to questions when offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw suffered a season-ending knee injury on the play.

Minnesota faced first-and-10 from its own 3-yard line. The Rams had only one timeout remaining, preventing Los Angeles from forcing Minnesota into punting from its own end zone if the Vikings repeatedly knelt. Did the risk outweigh the reward?

An exec and a coach offered differing views.

“I trust the coach there, so I probably wouldn’t even second-guess it,” the exec said. “That coach has built up enough chips so where if I was the GM, ‘Whatever you want to do, coach.’”

That’s the view from 30,000 feet. The view from the ground can be different.

Per TruMedia, this was the fourth time since 2000 that a team took over possession from its own 3-yard-line to its own 5-yard-line with 32-38 seconds left before halftime and the defense possessing fewer than two timeouts. The other three teams knelt. Minnesota was the only team to run a play in that situation. Teams rushed three times in five plays when the defense had two timeouts, and one time in one play when the defense held all three timeouts.

“Let’s say you pop a 10-yard run there,” a coach said. “Who is taking timeout from the minus-13 with less than 30 seconds?”

O’Connell suggested he liked the look against the Rams’ dime defense.

I’d expect O’Connell to kneel if he encounters a similar situation in the future.

• Not buying Rams as sellers: Executives from two NFC teams made unsolicited points questioning whether the Rams were ever serious about trading Cooper Kupp, let alone quarterback Matthew Stafford. Both saw reports of Kupp’s availability as likely motivational ploys to put players and/or coaches on notice. It’s difficult to fathom any team absorbing Kupp’s contract in its current form.

“I wasn’t buying that Cooper Kupp is getting traded at all,” one of the execs said. “The threat of a fire sale maybe lit the fire.”

5. Anthony Richardson completed 2 of 15 passes in the first half for Indianapolis in a key divisional matchup at Houston. That was only the beginning.

The Colts knew there would be a learning curve when they used the fourth pick of the 2023 draft on Anthony Richardson, a quarterback with 13 college starts. Could they have anticipated the learning curve would be this … adventuresome?

Every play feels like a roll of the dice. His performance in a 23-20 defeat at Houston included:

• Completing 2 of 15 passes in the first half
• Scoring a 69-yard touchdown on one of those completions
• Throwing an interception (-4.8 EPA) deep in Colts territory less than 30 seconds before halftime, setting up a Texans touchdown
• Taking himself out of the game for a play because he was tired
• Fumbling a handoff exchange on third down, taking the team out of field goal range
• Failing to get out of bounds to stop the clock with less than a minute remaining and Indy out of timeouts

When was the last time a quarterback tapped out because he was tired?

#Colts QB Anthony Richardson on leaving the game for one play in the 3Q:

“Tired, I ain’t gonna lie. That was a lot of running right there that I did, and I didn’t think I was gonna be able to go that next play. So, I just told (HC Shane Steichen) I needed a break right there.” pic.twitter.com/EMUtiSLIvm

— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) October 27, 2024

Richardson completed 10 of 32 passes for 174 yards. He had a second potential touchdown pass dropped.

That the Colts almost won the game is remarkable. At 4-4, they appear committed to riding out the turbulence instead of turning to backup Joe Flacco for the stretch run. That is understandable when considering how many Flacco types they’ve cycled through in recent years.

As the Richardson incompletions piled up Sunday, I dove into the archives to see how the 2-for-15 passing half compared with Colts quarterbacks from the team’s recent past. The bigger revelation: Richardson is the seventh Indy quarterback to start a Week 8 game in the past seven seasons (see table above).

This is a franchise desperate for stability at the position.

“We gotta just keep working through it,” coach Shane Steichen said. “He has a good work ethic. He grinds through these things. It’s a process. We do it together. It’s not about one guy.”

GO DEEPER

Colts can’t improve until Shane Steichen, Anthony Richardson accept reality

6. Two-minute drill: What the Browns won’t say about their quarterbacks

The Cleveland Browns set season highs on offense Sunday in points (29), total yards (401), passing yards (321), first downs (22), EPA (7.4), success rate (46.5 percent), pass plays gaining more than 15 yards (nine), EPA per pass play (+0.3) and probably a bunch of other categories.

Something about the offense seemed different during this 29-24 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. I’d imagine some theories might emerge to explain the overnight change once analysts have time to study the game tape.

Could it have been the change from Deshaun Watson to Jameis Winston at quarterback?

“I understand the question,” coach Kevin Stefanski said in his postgame news conference. “I don’t really get wrapped up in it honestly. I want to make sure we are doing everything in our power to score points on offense to help this football team. That’s a great team win there. I think all three phases did their job.”

The offense did more than its part statistically, finishing with +7.4 EPA, compared to -5.9 on defense and +3.5 on special teams. But apparently, because the organization remains financially tethered to Watson, who suffered a season-ending injury last week, no one in a leadership capacity with the team seems willing to say anything that even remotely suggests Watson might have been holding back the offense. Even the praise for Winston seems tempered. It’s quite a thing.

GO DEEPER

Lloyd: Jameis Winston’s performance, Browns’ win a reminder of what could’ve been this year

• The Lions’ 52-14 victory over the Tennessee Titans was a one-off by so many measures. Per Pro Football Reference, this was the first time a team has won by more than 25 points while getting outgained by 175 or more yards; the first time since 1941 that a team scored more than 45 points while gaining 225 or fewer yards; the fourth time a team has scored more than 50 points while running fewer than 50 plays (second time since 1966); and the 16th time a team has finished with more points than plays run.

• Will the Titans, having already traded DeAndre Hopkins and Ernest Jones IV, keep selling before the trade deadline? They do not have a 2025 third-round pick. Can they get one?

• The Jets losing three consecutive games since firing coach Robert Saleh, including two in a row since trading a third-round pick to Las Vegas for Davante Adams, leaves them 15th in the AFC, ahead of only Tennessee. Four other 2-6 teams in the conference hold tiebreakers over the Jets, including Adams’ former team, the Raiders.

“It just feels like the owner said, ‘I’m entrusting our future with Aaron Rodgers,’ and look at the results,” an exec said. “That’s rough.”

This is crazy: #Jets had 0 turnovers, held the Patriots to 247 yards — and still lost. They’re the first team to lose a game in which they did not turn the ball over and held their opponent under 250 yards since Week 3 of 2012.

In 2012, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers lost,…

— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) October 27, 2024

• Kirk Cousins completing 65 of 87 passes (75 percent) for 785 yards and eight touchdowns with one interception in two victories over Tampa Bay is stunning. Cousins now has 14 touchdown passes with two interceptions in five career games against Tampa Bay, the first of which spawned Cousins’ “You like that?!” catchphrase.

Kirk Cousins is the fourth player in NFL history with 750 passing yards and eight pass TDs against a single opponent in a season. The others: Dan Marino, Joe Montana and YA Tittle. Per @ESPNStatsInfo. #Falcons

— Marc Raimondi (@marcraimondi) October 27, 2024

• The Philadelphia Eagles winning three in a row with generally solid performances on both sides of the ball has calmed the waters around the team. In beating Cincinnati 37-17, the Philly offense posted its best EPA game (+17.5) since a divisional-round playoff victory over the Giants following the 2022 season. Up next: Jacksonville, which ranks 32nd in defensive EPA per play.

(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: Candice Ward / Getty Images)

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