Sunday favors the 49ers vs. the Chiefs, but Patrick Mahomes usually wins as the underdog

The 49ers are 1.5-point favorites to beat the Chiefs in Sunday's Super Bowl rematch, but Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes may think that means he has the 49ers where he wants them.

The Chiefs were 2-point underdogs to the 49ers eight months earlier in Super Bowl LVIII, but Mahomes led them to a 25-22 victory and was named Super Bowl MVP.

That was no surprise to Mahomes, who usually wins when the Chiefs are underdogs, posting a 10-3 career record in his 13 straight starts when the Chiefs are underdogs. In fact, Mahomes' .769 winning percentage as an underdog is almost as good as his career .792 winning percentage as the favorite.

Mahomes' strong record as the underdog began in the first start of his NFL career, when the Chiefs started him in place of Alex Smith for a pointless game in the 2017 season finale. The Broncos were favored by 3 points over the Chiefs that day, but Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 27-24 victory.

When Mahomes became the Chiefs' starter in 2018, it took the betting world a while to adjust to how good he was, and the Chiefs were underdogs in both week one and week two, winning both games outright. They were 3.5-point underdogs in Week Six against the Patriots, losing the game by 3 but winning against the spread, and 3-point underdogs in Week 11 against the Rams, losing by 3 and pushing against the spread.

Mahomes was only underdog once in 2019 by 3 points against the Patriots, but he led the Chiefs to a 7-point victory.

Mahomes was the underdog only once again in 2020, by 3.5 against the Ravens, and he led them to a 14-point victory.

Mahomes was the underdog twice in 2022: As a 1-point underdog at Tampa Bay, he led Kansas City to a 10-point victory. But as 2.5-point underdogs in Buffalo, the Chiefs lost by 4. This loss in Buffalo was the only time in Mahomes' career that a bet against him as an underdog was a losing bet; He's 11-1-1 against the spread when the Chiefs are underdogs. The Chiefs were 1-point underdogs against the Eagles in the Super Bowl later that season, but Mahomes led them to a 3-point victory.

Mahomes was never an underdog in the 2023 regular season, but the Chiefs were underdogs in three playoff games: against the Bills in the divisional round, against the Ravens in the AFC Championship and against the 49ers in the Super Bowl. Mahomes has led them to wins in all three games.

On Sunday the 49ers will try to do what they couldn't do in the Super Bowl and one of the hardest things to do in the NFL: beat Patrick Mahomes.