Fantasy Football Rankings: Rest-of-Season WR Tier
We're mid-October, which means it's time to launch the Shuffle Up series. What happened at this point was merely an audition. The ranks and levels you'll find below are the ones I'll use if I enter a new fantasy football draft from now on (and yes, there's still time to draft another Yahoo Fantasy Football League).
Salaries are unscientific and meant as a tool to show where talent clusters. Players on the same salary are even considered. Remember the golden rule: no player gains (or loses) additional value because you list him.
Currently injured players get their own temporary rank down. They are not up for debate. Everyone has their own ideas about injuries and comebacks.
The wideout shuffle was already in the content budget to begin with, but it became more timely this week with the trades of Davante Adams and Amari Cooper. Fantasy managers should be excited about these deals, as Adams and Cooper were involved in an offense that couldn't win a week ago. The Raiders don't have a legitimate quarterback, obviously. The Browns are stuck with the dreaded Deshaun Watson contract.
Adams shouldn't have a complicated onboarding in New York given his familiarity with Aaron Rodgers. I think Garrett Wilson is a high-end WR2 forward, and Adams is a middle-ground WR2, but can start every healthy week. Cooper will need to get up to speed with the Buffalo offense, but given how mediocre the wideout game has been there, the Bills have every incentive to fast-track their new player. We also have to recognize that Cooper was traded midway through the 2018 season and his production quickly increased in Dallas. The shuffle-up considers Cooper in the WR2/WR3 line for now.
Tier 1: Big Tickets
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$44 Ja'mar Chase
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$43 Justin Jefferson
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$41 CD Lamb
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$40 Amon-Ra St. Brown
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$38 Malik Nabers
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$37 AJ Brown
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$35 Tyreek Heels
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$34 Debo Samuel Sr
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$34 Chris Godwin
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$33 Mike Evans
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$32 Jaden Reed
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$31 Drake London
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$31 DK Metcalfe
Life is good for Chase managers, but you still feel like there's some meat left on the bones. After all, Chase is the WR1 in all scoring formats, but he's only the 20th target wideout (and the Bengals haven't gotten their bye yet). Joe Burrow has a 138.5 rating while targeting Chase for crying out loud. Press your easy button, Cincinnati.
It was around this time last year (right after the bye) when the Cowboys trashed their game plan and basically started throwing at Lamb at an absurd pace. He had nine or more targets in each of his last 11 starts, a total of 88-1186-9 in that span. Well, here we are again – Dallas suffering another embarrassing home loss in a bye week. Lamb was a slow push after the holdout summer, but I expect him to feast the rest of the way.
The high heel ranking is an optimistic nod to the idea that Tua Tagovailoa will return. Hill's still impossible to cover, but clearly the offense has shipwrecked with the current quarterback.
Do the Packers have many good players? Jayden Reed has reached 10 targets just once, and he's managed a modest 34 appearances through six starts this year. That said, Matt LaFleur's scheme always uses Reid a lot in the scoring area, and he's getting a rush or two a game. He's basically the Green Bay version of DeBo Samuel. Features or bugs? I like to think of it as a feature.
Godwin deserves a slight preference over Evans, as moving back to the slot has boosted his production. So it's often easier to win on those routes and the throws are quicker and more defined. Godwin has always offered upside, but he's also creating a strong floor, with five or more catches in every game. The schedule is going to be tough, but Baker Mayfield has played well and Tampa Bay has a narrow concentration in the passing game.
Level 2: Valid building blocks
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$29 Devonta Smith
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$27 Brandon Ayuk
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$27 Garrett Wilson
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$27 by Terry McLaurin
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$26 Marvin Harrison Jr
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$26 Stefon Diggs
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$25 Diontae Johnson
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$25 Jay Flowers
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$24 DJ Moore
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$23 T Higgins
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$22 Davante Adams
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$22 Brian Thomas Jr
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$21 George Pickens
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$20 Jameson Williams
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$20 Jaylen Waddle
Smith is always going to play with Robin as Brown's batman, but Jalen Hurts isn't getting much goal-line work this year, and Philadelphia has only those two primary options in the passing game; TE Dallas Goedert is inconsistent (and battling a hamstring injury), and the rest of the wide-receiver room is shockingly thin. Smith may never be a true WR1, but he's as handy a weekly WR2 punch as you'll find.
The Steelers have found a way to win four games with Justin Fields, even though he's only throwing for 184 yards per game and making some bad mistakes every week; A horrible Week 6 pick was overturned by a questionable personal-foul call. It looks like a trade with Russell Wilson is inevitable, possibly for Week 7. Pickens is a mercurial type, and Arthur Smith's game-calling will blow us away, but Pickens wins deep routes consistently, and he's one of those players, no matter who's at QB, who can make your week with just one splash play. I cannot allow his theory to be reversed.
The Johnson rank is definitely a hedge; He could stay in the upper tier if Andy Dalton is locked in to start the entire season, but things could fall apart quickly if (and when) Bryce Young returns; At some point the non-contending Panthers will likely have to try Young again. Johnson has been outside the top 70 for two young starts this year using half-point PPR scoring — just absurd. Since then, he's graded pretty well: WR6, WR9, WR60, WR12.
Level 3: Talk 'em up, talk 'em down
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$19 Bitter Cooper
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$17 tank del
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$17 Darnell Mooney
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$14 Jackson Smith-Nzigba
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Worth $12 Xavier
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$12 Josh Downs
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$11 Christian Watson
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$11 Christian Kirk
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$11 Jordan Addison
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$11 Calvin Ridley
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$11 Michael Pittman Jr
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$11 Courtland Sutton
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$11 Poker Smith-Schuster
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$10 One'Dale Robinson
Robinson is generating just 4.8 yards per target despite a solid 63.8% catch rate, which tells you how horizontal the New York passing game is. The key to Robinson's roster is having a league with a PPR or half-PPR component; He has five or more catches in five starts, but he's going to be around 40-60 yards most weeks — a useful depth piece, albeit a player with a capped upside.
Posted by Ridley A historic bagel last weekEight chances are catchless. It's a shared failure, as he had problems with his drops, but Will Levis passes are often off target. The best I can say about Ridley at this point — I'd rather list him than DeAndre Hopkins.
Juju Smith-Schuster's roster tag didn't spike a week ago because the Chiefs were bye, perhaps the fantasy public's fault. He's capable of being Rashi Rice-lite, and the Kansas City game plan worked overtime in Week 5, finding easy paths to poker wins. He is the odds-on favorite to be the team's most targeted player until further notice.
Mooney has a high target and snap shares in an offense that is terribly focused, and Kirk Cousins has completely shaken off the rust. Mooney is stuck with a capped upside given to his teammates, but his floor is higher than the market recognizes.
Level 4: Some admirable reverses
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$9 Ladd McConkie
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$9 Jacob Meyers
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$8 Khalil Shakir
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$8 Rome Odunje
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$8 DeAndre Hopkins
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$8 Romeo Dubs
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$8 Jerry Judy
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$8 Tyler Locket
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$7 Keenan Allen
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$7 Xavier Leggett
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$7 Jalen Tolbert
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$7 DeMario Douglas
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$7 Alec Pierce
Pierce leads all receivers in yards per target, but Michael Pittman Jr. is back and so is Anthony Richardson. The Colts are doing the right thing with Richardson — you have to build the future of your franchise — but it's much easier for everyone in this receiver room to start under center with Joe Flacco, who has quietly passed for double-digit touchdowns in his last eight games (over 20 in that stretch).
Judy is now the presumed No. 1 wideout in Cleveland, but until it's the Deshaun Watson show, do we really care? Ping me if and when they try a new quarterback. It may take an injury or some public blowout before the Browns are fully motivated to make a switch.
Shaqiri has always been a hard-floor, low-upside type of player, and now Cooper is in town to be the featured target. He was a WR3 at peak, but is now closer to WR5 quality.
Douglas became a quiet volume source in New England, and Drake had more good moments than bad during his debut. Perhaps he could be a poor man's version of New England's Von'Dale Robinson.
Level 5: bargain
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$6 Michael Wilson
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$6 Allen Lazard
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$5 Keon Coleman
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$5 Quentin Johnston
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$4 bub mean
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$4 Jawan Jennings
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$4 Tre Tucker
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$4 Rashod Bateman
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$4 Ja'lin Polk
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$3 Gabe Davis
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$3 Jordan Whittington
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$3 DeMarcus Robinson
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$3 Darius Slayton
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$3 Tutu Atwell
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$2 Joshua Palmer
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$2 Greg Dortch
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$2 Adnai Mitchell
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$2 Ray-Ray McCloud III
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$2 Noah Brown
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$2 Jalen Naylor
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$1 Mike Williams
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$1 Andrei Iosivus
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$1 Luke McCaffrey
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$1 Jalen McMillan
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$1 Curtis Samuel
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$1 Ricky Pearsall
I still expect Lazard to maintain some fantasy value even with the new crowd in the Jets receiving room. He's scored in four different weeks, and he's had as much Rodgers time as Adams. Mike Williams looks like the odd man out.
Money was first effective in Spencer Rattler's start and now two primary New Orleans receivers are injured. Mane won't be lurking in any defense again, but he'll lead this team in target share for a week or two. As always, we want to chase potential volume.
Typically contingent-value picks center around running backs, but Jennings takes on that theme as well, a player I'd confidently start if something happened to Samuel or Ayuk.
If Whittington has enough targets to qualify, he will top the success rate list among wide receivers, according to Pro Football Reference. He's a preferred streamer until the Rams get their primary options back.
Temporary injury rankings – not up for debate
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$26 Cooper Coupe
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$25 Nico Collins
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$24 Puka Nakua
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$19 Chris Olave
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$14 Rashid Shahid
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$5 Dontayvion Wicks
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$3 Brandyn Cooks
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$2 Eliza Moore