5 X-Factors for the Mets in the NLCS

The Mets are now just four wins from the World Series, as they await their National League Championship Series opponent. Whether it's the Dodgers or the Padres, though, it's clear that New York will need its stars to continue to rise at this point.

In the division series against the NL East champion Phillies, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos racked up hits. Shawn Manaya, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana started big time. And Francisco Lindor came up with one of the biggest swings in Mets history.

It's easy to say that the Mets will need those guys again if they're going to continue their amazing run in the Fall Classic. But they also need more than that. Here are five more players who will be NLCS X-factors for the Mets.

Sanger's return to start Game 1 of the NLDS was an emotional boost for the Mets — and Mets fans, who thought they might have lost their ace for the entire postseason. But how much can Senga actually give the Mets in the NLCS?

Senga pitched just two innings against the Phillies — his first start since July 26, his only start of the regular season. And though Senga settled down and looked sharp after Kyle Schwarber's leadoff home run — it was the only hit he allowed, and he struck out three — clearly he's not quite back yet.

The Devil's thorn is still as bad as ever, but Senga still needs to develop some velocity (his fastball touched 97 mph, but averaged 94.3 mph, compared to 95.7 mph in 2023 and 95.6 mph in 2024). (the start of the only regular season of the year), and more importantly, the length.

Whether the Mets face the Dodgers or the Padres, they will be facing one of the deepest, most dangerous lineups in the league. They will need an ace. Senga is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher at his best. But will he be able to be his best? How deep can Senga go in games against the Dodgers or Padres? Can he give the Mets three, four, five innings? Can he start multiple best-of-seven series? The more strikeouts Senga can get, the better chance the Mets will have to win the series.

Does Diaz have his mojo back?

By far the most important question facing the Mets' bullpen entering the NLCS. Diaz has been a rollercoaster the past few weeks — from his blow save in Atlanta at the end of the regular season to another blow save against the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLDS, right up until he walked the first two batters. He struck out in the ninth inning of NLDS Game 4 at Citi Field.

But that's when some inspiration from Francisco Lindor during a mound visit may have flipped the switch and returned Diaz to his unstoppable self. The Mets closer was trying to hype himself up by saying, “Let's go, let's go,” only to have Lindor Diaz tell him, “Don't say 'let's go'. Just do it.”

Diaz responded with his strongest sequence of the playoffs — striking out Cody Clemens on a 98.7 mph fastball, striking out Brandon Marsh on a 99.2 mph fastball and finally striking out Kyle Schwarber on a 101.1 mph fastball, his fastest pitch of the season, to send the Mets to the NLCS. Diaz's celebration on the mound looked like the old, confident Edwin Diaz.

If Diaz goes up against the Mets Dodgers or Padres, New York has one of the most dominant closers in the game, who could be called upon for showdowns with Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts or Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. Maximum pressure situation. If the Mets get a shaky Edwin Diaz, who can't command his fastball or put hitters away with line plays, how will they handle the superstar hitters of Los Angeles or San Diego?

McNeil did not play for the Mets for more than a month after suffering a sprained right wrist after being hit by a pitch on a bunt attempt. Injuries hampered the resurgence of the 32-year-old, who hit .216 with a .591 OPS before the All-Star break but .289 with a .923 OPS afterward, homering seven times in 41 games, thanks in part to making some adjustments at the plate.

But the Mets extending their season opened the door for McNeil's return. In fact, manager Carlos Mendoza said after the conclusion of the NLDS that “there's a really good chance” the veteran second baseman makes the team's NLCS roster. First, McNeal will play two rehab games in the Arizona Fall League to get ready.

Assuming McNeil actually stays on the roster — and isn't too rusty — he's potentially a huge addition for the Mets, even as a weapon off the bench. McNeal has performed well as a pinch-hitter in his career (.273/.360/.432 in 50 regular season plate appearances) and can step in for a right-handed batter like Jose Iglesias or Tyron Taylor in a key situation. A solid right-handed pitcher. But if McNeil can start — perhaps at second for Iglesias, who has a .440 OPS this postseason — he could lengthen the Mets' lineup.

Winker has already provided a few big moments in these playoffs: his two-run triple off Freddy Peralter in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, the insurance run he scored in the ninth inning of the Mets' comeback victory in a winner-take-all Game 3 over the Brewers, He crushed Aaron Nola in the upper deck at Citi Field in the NLDS with a moonshot home run.

Now, the Mets will likely turn to Winker for more. A lefty slugger DHing against opposing right-handed starters will likely get plenty of at-bats in the NLCS. That's because both the Dodgers and Padres pitching staffs are predominantly right-handed, and especially the rotation. Dodgers starters Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler and Landon Knack are all eligible, as are Padres starters Dylan Seaz, Yu Darvish and Michael King.

And even if Winker comes off the bench for any of the NLCS games, he could be called upon in a big spot — against the Dodgers' high-leverage relievers Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen and Evan Phillips, for example, or to flamethrower Padres closer Robert Suarez.

Winker can mash righties — he hit 13 of his 14 home runs against them this season (his playoff homer off Place Nola), and had a 123 OPS+ against right-handers. Because of that he should have plenty of opportunities to impact the NLCS.

Coming off a rough 2023, the 29-year-old left-hander has enjoyed a stellar season for the Mets. Although he did not make his debut until May 29 after rehabbing from offseason hip surgery, Peterson started 21 games and posted a 2.90 ERA, as the Mets went 15–6 in his outings. (Although he was far from the only reason, New York went 22-32 before joining the rotation and then 67-41.)

Peterson's success has continued this postseason — and not just as a starter. He saved the deciding Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Brewers, piggybacked with Senga to pitch three scoreless innings in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Phillies, then tossed another 2 1/3 scoreless innings in the Game 4 clincher. In that appearance, Peterson entered with two on, two out and the Mets down in the sixth and retired Bryson Stott to avoid trouble. Later, he beat Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper.

Here's the point: The Mets will absolutely depend on Peterson in the NLCS. The only question is which role(s). Given the demands of a seven-game series, he could get one start, but he could be more valuable out of the 'pen, whether backing up Senga or battling dangerous lefties like Shohei Ohtani or Jackson Merrill. spot