3 tropical cyclones roam Atlantic; another Gulf of Mexico threat may emerge

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a new disturbance in the Caribbean that could eventually become a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico. The risk of something materializing has dropped slightly, from 50 percent to 40 percent, and weather models remain divided on what might transpire.

There’s also a growing group of other systems to track in the Atlantic, although none poses any immediate threat to land.

• Isaac became a Category 2 hurricane over the weekend but is now swirling into chilly waters north of the Azores islands as a weakening nontropical storm.
• Joyce, which became a named storm last week, was recently downgraded to a tropical depression by the Hurricane Center.
• Kirk, which was named this weekend, will probably become a major hurricane, but it’s also predicted to stay away from land.
• Trailing Kirk, there’s a strong tropical wave that has an 80 percent chance to develop over the next week, according to the Hurricane Center.

The prospects of another storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico are unclear. The Central American Gyre — a broad region of low pressure over Central America — will probably generate several pockets of spin in the days ahead that could become the seedling of a named storm. The question is where.

Initially it looked like a pocket of spin would consolidate midweek over the western or northwestern Caribbean. But some models are backing off from that idea.

Still, some weather models suggest at least a remote possibility of a storm. If one forms in the western or northwest Caribbean, southerly flow would nudge it northward into the Gulf of Mexico. That would happen at the end of this week or into early next.

The gyre may also instead tighten west of the Continental Divide in Central America and give rise to a Pacific storm instead.

For now, residents along the U.S. Gulf Coast should keep tabs on the evolution of the Hurricane Center’s map showing the seven-day outlook for tropical weather in the Atlantic.

Isaac was named over the North Atlantic on Thursday evening. At first it had nontropical characteristics, but it detached from fronts and existed as its own self-contained swirl. At the same time, it drew energy from abnormally high water temperatures.

On Friday, Isaac reached hurricane strength and peaked at Category 2 on Saturday. By Sunday, it began weakening, and lost its tropical characteristics drifting over cool North Atlantic waters.

Joyce became a tropical storm on Friday west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. On Monday morning, it was about 940 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, which mark the divide between the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. Joyce’s peak winds briefly reached 50 mph over the weekend, but it has steadily weakened because of hostile high-altitude winds.

It is forecast to dissipate over the ocean around midweek.

Kirk became a tropical storm on Sunday. Now it has 50-mph winds and is located 740 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It will probably become a major hurricane with winds of at least 125 mph as it curves northwestward over the central Atlantic, avoiding land.

An as-yet-unnamed system, east of Kirk, is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. It bears watching but most computer models also generally keep it over the open ocean. If it earns a name, it will be called Leslie.

Beyond the current slew of storms, there are indications that the Atlantic will remain favorable for cyclone development over the next one to two weeks. At present, the Atlantic is actually 17 percent behind average in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy — a measure of how much energy has been generated by all storms to date. It’s possible that the ongoing and predicted storm activity narrows that shortfall in the weeks ahead.

Jason Samenow contributed to this report.