10 truly unexpected predictions for the 2024-25 NBA season

• Get NBA League Pass today

If you're looking for which teams will dazzle and fall, which player will capture the MVP, the winner of the Emirates Cup, the two teams in the NBA Finals, the last team standing and basically what will happen between now and June… you won't find it here or anywhere else.

That's because the 2024-25 NBA season, like every one before it, throws us for a loop.

And that's the beauty of basketball. You can crystal ball as much as you can and the only sure thing is that Jayson Tatum will no longer be benched — the Paris Olympics are over.

Otherwise, welcome to another season of … shrugs?

This could be the season where Ben Simmons plays up to those summer workout videos. This could be the season where Mikal Bridges misses a game. This could be a season where Luka Doncic hugs a referee. This could be the season where LeBron James falls off the geriatric cliff.

Or maybe not.

There's a chance you'll find these reasons to follow the six-month journey: measuring the growth of Anthony Edwards and other young superstars; Surprise a small but influential number of bigs (Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, etc.); Stephen Curry's consistent shooting ability even at his advanced age; And 29 other teams' attempts (give or take) to solve the defending champion Celtics.

As such, here are 10 clues that could unlock some of the secrets of 2024-25:

1. The league goes organic

Punitive rules regarding salary caps, aprons, luxuries and repeater taxes have this effect: teams must draft, develop and keep.

Basically, grow organically. Roster construction now begins with drafting, then adding a few pieces, and then awarding max contracts to those eligible. If you don't draft well, you'll waste years and become a Washington Wizard.

Here's the biological makeup of five contestants who would either support or deny this theory:

Orlando Magic (very high organic growth): Seven were taken in the first round in the projected rotation. Two, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, are cornerstones.

Oklahoma City Thunder (High): Sure, Kia MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander came in a trade. Then there's Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Lou Dort, Jaelyn Williams and Cason Wallace, all housewives.

Boston Celtics (slightly higher): Tatum and Jaylen Brown were first round picks. Thank you so much, Nets and Sixers, who greased these picks with sad trades.

Philadelphia 76ers (middle): “Process” was designed to make it through the draft, and while Joel Embiid is the only remaining evidence, the Sixers later selected Tyrese Maxey, so there's that.

Phoenix Suns (Lower): Say hello to one of the few remaining Big 3s where only one (Devin Booker) is an original. Say goodbye to how teams are rejecting this blueprint.

2. Envisioning a New York Championship

Which team needs a championship? Well, 30 of them. But who actually wins this season? really, really Need one? The Knicks top that list.

It's a flagship franchise that, since winning its second and last title in 1973, has endured decades of lost, Game 7 losses to John Starks, Reggie Miller and a neophyte GM named Phil Jackson, among other soul-destroying developments.

Finally – they are working properly. Leon Rose might be the best team-builder in Knicks history. Tom Thibodeau can do a little coaching. Jalen Brunson was sent from hoop heaven. Is Karl-Anthony Towns a Knick? And in every way, this list covers all the bases.

Last time someone pouted when they left the Knicks? Before Donte DiVincenzo, that?

So if there's any sympathy in this unforgiving basketball world, the Knicks will celebrate the first time the Yankees are sold for $10 million and Marvin Gaye drops “Let's Get It On.” A parade down Broadway? Spike Lee says he has it.

3. The 'Don't Call It A Comeback' List

Ja Morant. Less than two years ago he had an up and coming big deal. He played in nine games last year and saw Gilgeous-Alexander take his place. Both Morant's shoulder and Judge are healthy now and you suspect he'll (a) be an All-Star, and (b) stay in Memphis. “I'm always up,” he says in his new Nike spot. Do you doubt him?

Ball Brothers LaMelo and Lonzo have made a lot of money. They didn't play much. Blame it on injuries Balls played 22 out of 164 possible games last season (all to LaMelo). Lonzo has missed two straight seasons due to multiple knee surgeries. He will be load-managed with a tight leash.

Lonzo Ball looked sharp in his return to the lineup 👏

10 PTS | 4-6 FGM 2-4 3PM | 15 minutes@ChicagoBulls drink #NBAPreseason W. pic.twitter.com/XUlT1aAqjw

— NBA (@NBA) October 17, 2024

Clay Thompson. He was hurt last season with the Warriors—feelings, that is. He lost his starting job, lost faith in the franchise, then coughed up 0-for-10 in his final game for the Warriors. He's now sharing the floor with Dallas' playmakers (Doncic and Kyrie Irving) who will give him open looks.

Chris Middleton. The Bucks' fortunes will depend in part on a key player who had both ankles repaired this summer.

Ben Simmons. He's reaching the final year of that contract, which means, due to obvious motivations, we'll finally see Ben Simmons get that contract … or someone who never gets it again.

4. Rating the PG team

Paul George was the biggest name to switch addresses last summer when Kawhi Leonard was originally swapped for Embiid. It was a big pickup for the Sixers, who added a missing two-way piece to give Embiid his best chance at a title (and possibly PGO).

This is the fourth competitive team for the 34-year-old, who has made each one better. So… how did they (he) get short?

Pacers (seven seasons): The franchise's best player since Miller bravely overcame a serious right leg injury. But: His other misfortune was getting bounced by Big 3 Miami in three straight postseasons (including two East Finals).

Thunder (two seasons): His sophomore year in OKC was epic — Kia MVP finalist, All-NBA first team, All-Defensive first team, career-high 28-point average, solid chemistry with Russell Westbrook. But: OKC never escaped the first round, when George went 2-for-16 in the elimination game and lost to Utah. After one season, he and the Thunder were traded by Damian Lillard.

Clippers (Five Seasons): Leonard signed terms with the Clippers in a trade for George. The Clippers were consistently victorious and PG averaged 23 points, 6 rebounds and 4.5 assists in LA. But: Hurt, man.

5. Ruh-roh Russ: How a legend fades

Westbrook's latest rematch takes place in Denver. It's a bit of a disappointment for the Nuggets, who won a title two years ago but badly need help from a depleted bench to offset the growing threats in the West.

This goes double for Russia. Has any former MVP (2017) fallen so far, so fast? A year ago he set an unofficial NBA record for largest pay cut ($46 million to $3 million). Here's the steady regression since he left OKC in 2019 at age 30:

Rocket (one year): After three straight first-round eliminations, OKC turned the page and sent Rusch to Houston. Rusch's scoring average was a postseason low with Rajon Rondo's brother in the semifinals.

Wizard (one year): It was the last dominant season for Russ, who averaged a triple-double and breathed life into the Wizards.

Lakers (two years): Los Angeles became his third team in three years. Ultimately, he was degraded and his jump shot broke (sub-30% from deep) with LeBron having faith in him.

Clippers (two seasons): After briefly enjoying a playoff rush in his first season with the Clippers, his playing time dropped to 22 minutes last season.

6. Prestige for the President

He is the architect of the best team without a championship to his name, which could change soon. OKC president Sam Presti has the Thunder in great shape both today and tomorrow, making it doubly difficult to shut down.

Most teams are either years away from contention or sacrificing their future to win now. Thunder is none of the above. OKC has seven potential future first-rounders (not counting their own), two swaps (with the 2027 Clippers) and a potential 12 second-rounders (with protection) over the next six years.

They will start this season with an MVP finalist and the youngest roster with 57 wins.

With so many assets, OKC could be proactive at the trade deadline and get better. Presti is a problem.

7. Lowest draft class since 2000

Those who study these subjects are slotting in before the 2024 draft class begins. They say: Name the No. 1 pick, and after a few seconds of awkward silence they reply: Told you so.

We'll see about Zacchaire Risacher and Zach Edey and Bub Carrington very soon. To defeat them, the collective must be quite flexible:

• 2000 (Kenyon Martin No. 1 pick): Only three have made an All-Star team, no more than once. Only Michael Redd made All-NBA. Eight never played a game.

• 2002 (Yao Ming). injury draft A foot injury limited Yao to eight seasons. No. 2 Jay Williams crashed his motorcycle and was done after his rookie year. No. 6 DaJuan Wagner played 103 games and had half his colon removed due to health issues.

• 2013 (Anthony Bennett). Giannis Antetokounmpo finished 15th. Michael-Carter Williams was the Kia Rookie of the Year.

8. Paying off for past pops

His record is 191-280, behind Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Leonard. He missed the playoffs in five straight seasons and won 22 games in each of the last two.

Anyone else would be fired but, of course, Gregg Popovich is no one else. During this slide he received a contract extension and a big raise from Spurs.

So put Pop on your hot coaching seat list at your own risk. If anyone has tenure in this business, it's the all-time winningest coach. He'll probably make his call about his future because any other scenario would be…uncomfortable.

Still, his time will eventually come to an end. Will Victor Wembanyama win before that?

9. Rivalries that can define seasons

Celtic-Box: A match-up between the last two Eastern teams to win a title and fade away. Will the Celtics force the Bucks to rebuild around Giannis?

Knicks-Sixers: Their first-round playoff run last spring was encouraging. How Towns does against Embiid will matter.

Cavs-Magic: Their seven-game streak was probably the best pound-for-pound in the 2024 postseason. A pair of up-and-comers are now trying to finish in the top-four.

Warrior-King: Last two years: Curry dropped 50 in a Game 7, the Kings fell to San Francisco by 24 in the SoFi play-in tournament.

Grizzlies-Thunder: Before the injury and Morant suspension, the Grizzlies were now the Thunder.

Sun-Wolf: Kevin Durant is a hero to Anthony Edwards, who swept him and the Suns last spring anyway.

10. Reasons why Celtics favorites will (or won't) repeat.

Yes: Brown and Tatum are touching their primes.

No: The Knicks (see above) are hitting their stride.

Yes: They have a top five start in basketball.

No: Is the Sixer a good three?

Yes: They are deep.

No: Have you seen Oklahoma City?

****

Sean Powell has covered the NBA for over 25 years. You can e-mail him herefind His archive is here And Follow him to X.

The views on this page are not necessarily those of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Does not reflect the opinion of Invention.